Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on August 24 will likely fall between 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and southwesterly winds shifting to westerly, following a modest cooling trend after warmer conditions earlier in the weekend. This positions 13°C and nearby bins as plausible outcomes while the 41% implied probability on 9°C or below reflects trader focus on forecast spread, potential for clearer skies enhancing radiative cooling, and model disagreements on exact advection of cooler air. Historical August norms near 13–15°C minima provide context, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour low reported by official stations. Updated model runs and any late pressure changes will drive further shifts before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 24?
9°C or below 82%
13°C 37%
19°C or higher 30%
12°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
82%
10°C
20%
11°C
20%
12°C
22%
13°C
28%
14°C
20%
15°C
9%
16°C
16%
17°C
16%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
30%
9°C or below 82%
13°C 37%
19°C or higher 30%
12°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
82%
10°C
$0 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$5 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$4 Vol.
9%
16°C
$5 Vol.
16%
17°C
$5 Vol.
16%
18°C
$5 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on August 24 will likely fall between 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and southwesterly winds shifting to westerly, following a modest cooling trend after warmer conditions earlier in the weekend. This positions 13°C and nearby bins as plausible outcomes while the 41% implied probability on 9°C or below reflects trader focus on forecast spread, potential for clearer skies enhancing radiative cooling, and model disagreements on exact advection of cooler air. Historical August norms near 13–15°C minima provide context, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour low reported by official stations. Updated model runs and any late pressure changes will drive further shifts before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$34End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on August 24 will likely fall between 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and southwesterly winds shifting to westerly, following a modest cooling trend after warmer conditions earlier in the weekend. This positions 13°C and nearby bins as plausible outcomes while the 41% implied probability on 9°C or below reflects trader focus on forecast spread, potential for clearer skies enhancing radiative cooling, and model disagreements on exact advection of cooler air. Historical August norms near 13–15°C minima provide context, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour low reported by official stations. Updated model runs and any late pressure changes will drive further shifts before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on August 24 will likely fall between 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and southwesterly winds shifting to westerly, following a modest cooling trend after warmer conditions earlier in the weekend. This positions 13°C and nearby bins as plausible outcomes while the 41% implied probability on 9°C or below reflects trader focus on forecast spread, potential for clearer skies enhancing radiative cooling, and model disagreements on exact advection of cooler air. Historical August norms near 13–15°C minima provide context, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour low reported by official stations. Updated model runs and any late pressure changes will drive further shifts before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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