Current ensemble forecasts from European and U.S. models indicate a daytime high of 23–24 °C in Paris on August 22, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge, increased Atlantic moisture, and broken cloud cover that limits peak solar insolation. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where mean highs hover near 24 °C and afternoon showers or thicker stratiform layers frequently cap temperatures one to two degrees below clear-sky expectations. Market-implied odds heavily weighting 23 °C reflect this model consensus and the narrow resolution thresholds, while the modest probability attached to 25 °C or higher accounts for residual uncertainty if subsidence strengthens or skies clear more than anticipated ahead of the evening observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 22?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 22?
23°C 48%
24°C 26%
22°C 18%
21°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
7%
22°C
18%
23°C
48%
24°C
26%
25°C
4%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 48%
24°C 26%
22°C 18%
21°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
19°C or below
$335 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$266 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$559 Vol.
7%
22°C
$960 Vol.
18%
23°C
$2,699 Vol.
48%
24°C
$909 Vol.
26%
25°C
$1,401 Vol.
4%
26°C
$964 Vol.
1%
27°C
$400 Vol.
1%
28°C
$334 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$492 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and U.S. models indicate a daytime high of 23–24 °C in Paris on August 22, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge, increased Atlantic moisture, and broken cloud cover that limits peak solar insolation. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where mean highs hover near 24 °C and afternoon showers or thicker stratiform layers frequently cap temperatures one to two degrees below clear-sky expectations. Market-implied odds heavily weighting 23 °C reflect this model consensus and the narrow resolution thresholds, while the modest probability attached to 25 °C or higher accounts for residual uncertainty if subsidence strengthens or skies clear more than anticipated ahead of the evening observation window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,318End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and U.S. models indicate a daytime high of 23–24 °C in Paris on August 22, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge, increased Atlantic moisture, and broken cloud cover that limits peak solar insolation. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where mean highs hover near 24 °C and afternoon showers or thicker stratiform layers frequently cap temperatures one to two degrees below clear-sky expectations. Market-implied odds heavily weighting 23 °C reflect this model consensus and the narrow resolution thresholds, while the modest probability attached to 25 °C or higher accounts for residual uncertainty if subsidence strengthens or skies clear more than anticipated ahead of the evening observation window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,318End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from European and U.S. models indicate a daytime high of 23–24 °C in Paris on August 22, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge, increased Atlantic moisture, and broken cloud cover that limits peak solar insolation. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where mean highs hover near 24 °C and afternoon showers or thicker stratiform layers frequently cap temperatures one to two degrees below clear-sky expectations. Market-implied odds heavily weighting 23 °C reflect this model consensus and the narrow resolution thresholds, while the modest probability attached to 25 °C or higher accounts for residual uncertainty if subsidence strengthens or skies clear more than anticipated ahead of the evening observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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