Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and other global models show Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 22 most likely peaking at 21–22 °C, reflecting a narrow spread in short-range guidance amid a transitional synoptic pattern with Atlantic air advection and scattered showers. These conditions limit diurnal heating through increased cloud cover and reduced insolation, keeping values near or slightly below the long-term August average of 22–23 °C. Trader sentiment remains closely divided because small shifts in frontal timing or convective activity could push the daily high either side of 21 °C, while historical analogs from similar late-summer setups confirm the modest variability expected. Updated model runs and official observations from Poland’s meteorological service will provide the final data for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 22?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 22?
21°C 38%
22°C 37%
20°C 12%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
12%
21°C
38%
22°C
37%
23°C
11%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
21°C 38%
22°C 37%
20°C 12%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
16°C or below
$372 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$406 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$254 Vol.
1%
19°C
$449 Vol.
4%
20°C
$780 Vol.
12%
21°C
$489 Vol.
38%
22°C
$770 Vol.
37%
23°C
$763 Vol.
11%
24°C
$224 Vol.
3%
25°C
$251 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$562 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and other global models show Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 22 most likely peaking at 21–22 °C, reflecting a narrow spread in short-range guidance amid a transitional synoptic pattern with Atlantic air advection and scattered showers. These conditions limit diurnal heating through increased cloud cover and reduced insolation, keeping values near or slightly below the long-term August average of 22–23 °C. Trader sentiment remains closely divided because small shifts in frontal timing or convective activity could push the daily high either side of 21 °C, while historical analogs from similar late-summer setups confirm the modest variability expected. Updated model runs and official observations from Poland’s meteorological service will provide the final data for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$5,321End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and other global models show Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 22 most likely peaking at 21–22 °C, reflecting a narrow spread in short-range guidance amid a transitional synoptic pattern with Atlantic air advection and scattered showers. These conditions limit diurnal heating through increased cloud cover and reduced insolation, keeping values near or slightly below the long-term August average of 22–23 °C. Trader sentiment remains closely divided because small shifts in frontal timing or convective activity could push the daily high either side of 21 °C, while historical analogs from similar late-summer setups confirm the modest variability expected. Updated model runs and official observations from Poland’s meteorological service will provide the final data for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,321End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and other global models show Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 22 most likely peaking at 21–22 °C, reflecting a narrow spread in short-range guidance amid a transitional synoptic pattern with Atlantic air advection and scattered showers. These conditions limit diurnal heating through increased cloud cover and reduced insolation, keeping values near or slightly below the long-term August average of 22–23 °C. Trader sentiment remains closely divided because small shifts in frontal timing or convective activity could push the daily high either side of 21 °C, while historical analogs from similar late-summer setups confirm the modest variability expected. Updated model runs and official observations from Poland’s meteorological service will provide the final data for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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