Recent ensemble model guidance from agencies including Roshydromet shows Moscow's overnight minimum on August 23 centered near 13–14°C, with spreads of roughly 11–16°C driven by variable cloud cover, light winds, and moderate radiational cooling under weakening high pressure. Late-August climatology places average lows around 12–13°C, so trader-implied odds—nearly even between 20°C-or-higher and 10°C-or-below at ~47%—reflect uncertainty in precise boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island retention. Key variables include forecast cloud timing and surface observations; updated model runs over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of official minimum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 23?
20°C or higher 95%
10°C or below 46%
13°C 45%
15°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
10°C or below
46%
11°C
26%
12°C
45%
13°C
45%
14°C
27%
15°C
45%
16°C
45%
17°C
27%
18°C
45%
19°C
27%
20°C or higher
95%
20°C or higher 95%
10°C or below 46%
13°C 45%
15°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
10°C or below
$20 Vol.
46%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
45%
13°C
$0 Vol.
45%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$15 Vol.
45%
16°C
$0 Vol.
45%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
45%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C or higher
$5 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model guidance from agencies including Roshydromet shows Moscow's overnight minimum on August 23 centered near 13–14°C, with spreads of roughly 11–16°C driven by variable cloud cover, light winds, and moderate radiational cooling under weakening high pressure. Late-August climatology places average lows around 12–13°C, so trader-implied odds—nearly even between 20°C-or-higher and 10°C-or-below at ~47%—reflect uncertainty in precise boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island retention. Key variables include forecast cloud timing and surface observations; updated model runs over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of official minimum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model guidance from agencies including Roshydromet shows Moscow's overnight minimum on August 23 centered near 13–14°C, with spreads of roughly 11–16°C driven by variable cloud cover, light winds, and moderate radiational cooling under weakening high pressure. Late-August climatology places average lows around 12–13°C, so trader-implied odds—nearly even between 20°C-or-higher and 10°C-or-below at ~47%—reflect uncertainty in precise boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island retention. Key variables include forecast cloud timing and surface observations; updated model runs over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of official minimum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble model guidance from agencies including Roshydromet shows Moscow's overnight minimum on August 23 centered near 13–14°C, with spreads of roughly 11–16°C driven by variable cloud cover, light winds, and moderate radiational cooling under weakening high pressure. Late-August climatology places average lows around 12–13°C, so trader-implied odds—nearly even between 20°C-or-higher and 10°C-or-below at ~47%—reflect uncertainty in precise boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island retention. Key variables include forecast cloud timing and surface observations; updated model runs over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of official minimum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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