**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 18–19°C for Madrid on August 24, 2026, aligning closely with the historical average low of 18.7°C.** Recent GFS and other numerical weather prediction runs show a cooling trend driven by increased southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and moderating dew points around 10–15°C, which limit strong nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies. These conditions favor a minimum in the 18–20°C range rather than extremes. The market’s near-even split between “18°C or below” (45.5%) and “28°C or higher” (42%) reflects uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind strength, which can shift the minimum by several degrees; stronger winds or thicker clouds would suppress the low, while clearer, calmer conditions could allow slightly cooler readings. No major synoptic shifts are expected in the next 48 hours, keeping outcomes clustered around climatological norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
28°C or higher 84%
18°C or below 45%
19°C 20%
23°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
45%
19°C
20%
20°C
11%
21°C
11%
22°C
8%
23°C
12%
24°C
12%
25°C
2%
26°C
12%
27°C
12%
28°C or higher
84%
28°C or higher 84%
18°C or below 45%
19°C 20%
23°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$0 Vol.
11%
21°C
$0 Vol.
11%
22°C
$23 Vol.
8%
23°C
$25 Vol.
12%
24°C
$5 Vol.
12%
25°C
$5 Vol.
2%
26°C
$5 Vol.
12%
27°C
$5 Vol.
12%
28°C or higher
$5 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 18–19°C for Madrid on August 24, 2026, aligning closely with the historical average low of 18.7°C.** Recent GFS and other numerical weather prediction runs show a cooling trend driven by increased southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and moderating dew points around 10–15°C, which limit strong nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies. These conditions favor a minimum in the 18–20°C range rather than extremes. The market’s near-even split between “18°C or below” (45.5%) and “28°C or higher” (42%) reflects uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind strength, which can shift the minimum by several degrees; stronger winds or thicker clouds would suppress the low, while clearer, calmer conditions could allow slightly cooler readings. No major synoptic shifts are expected in the next 48 hours, keeping outcomes clustered around climatological norms.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$73End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 18–19°C for Madrid on August 24, 2026, aligning closely with the historical average low of 18.7°C.** Recent GFS and other numerical weather prediction runs show a cooling trend driven by increased southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and moderating dew points around 10–15°C, which limit strong nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies. These conditions favor a minimum in the 18–20°C range rather than extremes. The market’s near-even split between “18°C or below” (45.5%) and “28°C or higher” (42%) reflects uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind strength, which can shift the minimum by several degrees; stronger winds or thicker clouds would suppress the low, while clearer, calmer conditions could allow slightly cooler readings. No major synoptic shifts are expected in the next 48 hours, keeping outcomes clustered around climatological norms.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$73End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 18–19°C for Madrid on August 24, 2026, aligning closely with the historical average low of 18.7°C.** Recent GFS and other numerical weather prediction runs show a cooling trend driven by increased southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and moderating dew points around 10–15°C, which limit strong nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies. These conditions favor a minimum in the 18–20°C range rather than extremes. The market’s near-even split between “18°C or below” (45.5%) and “28°C or higher” (42%) reflects uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind strength, which can shift the minimum by several degrees; stronger winds or thicker clouds would suppress the low, while clearer, calmer conditions could allow slightly cooler readings. No major synoptic shifts are expected in the next 48 hours, keeping outcomes clustered around climatological norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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