Traders have converged on 14°C as the implied outcome for Ankara’s lowest temperature on August 22 because official meteorological guidance and model consensus point to nocturnal cooling reaching exactly that threshold under clear skies and light winds typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions over central Anatolia. Historical August minima average near 14–18°C, with recent daily forecasts showing overnight lows stabilizing around 14°C after daytime highs of 27–29°C. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects real-time integration of surface observations and short-range numerical weather prediction. A shift in cloud cover, stronger advection of warmer air, or station-specific measurement timing could alter the recorded minimum, though current data indicate low likelihood of deviation outside the narrow 13–15°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 22?
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$4,893 Vol.
$4,893 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$4,893 Vol.
$4,893 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
12°C or below
$626 Vol.
No
13°C
$236 Vol.
No
14°C
$840 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$563 Vol.
No
16°C
$777 Vol.
No
17°C
$530 Vol.
No
18°C
$254 Vol.
No
19°C
$370 Vol.
No
20°C
$208 Vol.
No
21°C
$201 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$287 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 14°C as the implied outcome for Ankara’s lowest temperature on August 22 because official meteorological guidance and model consensus point to nocturnal cooling reaching exactly that threshold under clear skies and light winds typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions over central Anatolia. Historical August minima average near 14–18°C, with recent daily forecasts showing overnight lows stabilizing around 14°C after daytime highs of 27–29°C. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects real-time integration of surface observations and short-range numerical weather prediction. A shift in cloud cover, stronger advection of warmer air, or station-specific measurement timing could alter the recorded minimum, though current data indicate low likelihood of deviation outside the narrow 13–15°C band.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$4,893End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 14°C as the implied outcome for Ankara’s lowest temperature on August 22 because official meteorological guidance and model consensus point to nocturnal cooling reaching exactly that threshold under clear skies and light winds typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions over central Anatolia. Historical August minima average near 14–18°C, with recent daily forecasts showing overnight lows stabilizing around 14°C after daytime highs of 27–29°C. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects real-time integration of surface observations and short-range numerical weather prediction. A shift in cloud cover, stronger advection of warmer air, or station-specific measurement timing could alter the recorded minimum, though current data indicate low likelihood of deviation outside the narrow 13–15°C band.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,893End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on 14°C as the implied outcome for Ankara’s lowest temperature on August 22 because official meteorological guidance and model consensus point to nocturnal cooling reaching exactly that threshold under clear skies and light winds typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions over central Anatolia. Historical August minima average near 14–18°C, with recent daily forecasts showing overnight lows stabilizing around 14°C after daytime highs of 27–29°C. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects real-time integration of surface observations and short-range numerical weather prediction. A shift in cloud cover, stronger advection of warmer air, or station-specific measurement timing could alter the recorded minimum, though current data indicate low likelihood of deviation outside the narrow 13–15°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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