Recent model consensus from agencies including Météo-France and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature in Paris on August 24 most likely between 25–27 °C, driven by moderate easterly flow and increasing cloud cover that will limit peak solar insolation after cooler conditions on August 22. Historical climatology shows an average daily high of 24.6 °C for the date, so current guidance reflects above-normal but not exceptional warmth. Minor spread in ensemble runs stems from uncertainty in afternoon cloud thickness and wind direction, which directly explains why trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered around 25–27 °C rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated high-resolution model runs and the next official Météo-France briefing are the key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 24?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 24?
26°C 26%
27°C 25%
25°C 20%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
9%
25°C
20%
26°C
26%
27°C
25%
28°C
16%
29°C
7%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
26°C 26%
27°C 25%
25°C 20%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$184 Vol.
1%
24°C
$387 Vol.
9%
25°C
$1,026 Vol.
20%
26°C
$1,276 Vol.
26%
27°C
$964 Vol.
25%
28°C
$1,516 Vol.
16%
29°C
$632 Vol.
7%
30°C
$770 Vol.
4%
31°C
$474 Vol.
1%
32°C
$477 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$65 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including Météo-France and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature in Paris on August 24 most likely between 25–27 °C, driven by moderate easterly flow and increasing cloud cover that will limit peak solar insolation after cooler conditions on August 22. Historical climatology shows an average daily high of 24.6 °C for the date, so current guidance reflects above-normal but not exceptional warmth. Minor spread in ensemble runs stems from uncertainty in afternoon cloud thickness and wind direction, which directly explains why trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered around 25–27 °C rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated high-resolution model runs and the next official Météo-France briefing are the key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:55 AM ET
Volume
$7,772End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including Météo-France and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature in Paris on August 24 most likely between 25–27 °C, driven by moderate easterly flow and increasing cloud cover that will limit peak solar insolation after cooler conditions on August 22. Historical climatology shows an average daily high of 24.6 °C for the date, so current guidance reflects above-normal but not exceptional warmth. Minor spread in ensemble runs stems from uncertainty in afternoon cloud thickness and wind direction, which directly explains why trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered around 25–27 °C rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated high-resolution model runs and the next official Météo-France briefing are the key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,772End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies including Météo-France and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature in Paris on August 24 most likely between 25–27 °C, driven by moderate easterly flow and increasing cloud cover that will limit peak solar insolation after cooler conditions on August 22. Historical climatology shows an average daily high of 24.6 °C for the date, so current guidance reflects above-normal but not exceptional warmth. Minor spread in ensemble runs stems from uncertainty in afternoon cloud thickness and wind direction, which directly explains why trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered around 25–27 °C rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated high-resolution model runs and the next official Météo-France briefing are the key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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