Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current first vice-president of the Brazilian Senate, holds the strongest position in the Tocantins race for one of two seats up for election on October 4. Recent July 2026 polling from Paraná Pesquisas shows him leading with 31% in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 25%, with Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil) and others trailing further behind. His re-election bid benefits from established party infrastructure within the PL, Bolsonarist backing, and name recognition built during his Senate tenure. Lower-probability names such as Ronaldo Dimas, Nilton Santos, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and various minor candidates register minimal support in surveys and face structural barriers including limited resources and weaker coalitions. Traders price these gaps based on consistent polling trends and the typical advantages of incumbency in Brazilian state Senate contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Gomes 68%
Nilton Santos 15.0%
Ronaldo Dimas 11.8%
Alexandre Guimarães 9.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Gomes
68%
Nilton Santos
8%
Ronaldo Dimas
10%
Alexandre Guimarães
15%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
6%
Fábio Ribeiro
5%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
5%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
5%
Gaguim
4%
Osvany Luz
4%
Professor Osvaldo
4%
Paulo Mourão
4%
Eli Borges
<1%
Eduardo Gomes 68%
Nilton Santos 15.0%
Ronaldo Dimas 11.8%
Alexandre Guimarães 9.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Gomes
$4,224 Vol.
68%
Nilton Santos
$152 Vol.
8%
Ronaldo Dimas
$170 Vol.
10%
Alexandre Guimarães
$129 Vol.
15%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$139 Vol.
6%
Fábio Ribeiro
$139 Vol.
5%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$119 Vol.
5%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$139 Vol.
5%
Gaguim
$138 Vol.
4%
Osvany Luz
$121 Vol.
4%
Professor Osvaldo
$139 Vol.
4%
Paulo Mourão
$139 Vol.
4%
Eli Borges
$139 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current first vice-president of the Brazilian Senate, holds the strongest position in the Tocantins race for one of two seats up for election on October 4. Recent July 2026 polling from Paraná Pesquisas shows him leading with 31% in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 25%, with Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil) and others trailing further behind. His re-election bid benefits from established party infrastructure within the PL, Bolsonarist backing, and name recognition built during his Senate tenure. Lower-probability names such as Ronaldo Dimas, Nilton Santos, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and various minor candidates register minimal support in surveys and face structural barriers including limited resources and weaker coalitions. Traders price these gaps based on consistent polling trends and the typical advantages of incumbency in Brazilian state Senate contests.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$5,887End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current first vice-president of the Brazilian Senate, holds the strongest position in the Tocantins race for one of two seats up for election on October 4. Recent July 2026 polling from Paraná Pesquisas shows him leading with 31% in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 25%, with Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil) and others trailing further behind. His re-election bid benefits from established party infrastructure within the PL, Bolsonarist backing, and name recognition built during his Senate tenure. Lower-probability names such as Ronaldo Dimas, Nilton Santos, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and various minor candidates register minimal support in surveys and face structural barriers including limited resources and weaker coalitions. Traders price these gaps based on consistent polling trends and the typical advantages of incumbency in Brazilian state Senate contests.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,887End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current first vice-president of the Brazilian Senate, holds the strongest position in the Tocantins race for one of two seats up for election on October 4. Recent July 2026 polling from Paraná Pesquisas shows him leading with 31% in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 25%, with Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil) and others trailing further behind. His re-election bid benefits from established party infrastructure within the PL, Bolsonarist backing, and name recognition built during his Senate tenure. Lower-probability names such as Ronaldo Dimas, Nilton Santos, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and various minor candidates register minimal support in surveys and face structural barriers including limited resources and weaker coalitions. Traders price these gaps based on consistent polling trends and the typical advantages of incumbency in Brazilian state Senate contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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