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icon for Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Main Election

Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Main Election

Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place

Marcelo Castro 51%

Ciro Nogueira 32%

Julio Cesar 6%

Tiago Junqueira 1.3%

Polymarket

$10,019 Vol.

Marcelo Castro 51%

Ciro Nogueira 32%

Julio Cesar 6%

Tiago Junqueira 1.3%

Polymarket

$10,019 Vol.

icon for Marcelo Castro

Marcelo Castro

$1,497 Vol.

51%

icon for Ciro Nogueira

Ciro Nogueira

$953 Vol.

32%

icon for Julio Cesar

Julio Cesar

$854 Vol.

6%

icon for Tiago Junqueira

Tiago Junqueira

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Toinho Dufrango

Toinho Dufrango

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Missionário Evandro Craveiro

Missionário Evandro Craveiro

$398 Vol.

1%

icon for Antônio Barros

Antônio Barros

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Danniel Rocha

Danniel Rocha

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Jorge Lopes

Jorge Lopes

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Alexandre Mariano

Alexandre Mariano

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Jardenya Bezerra

Jardenya Bezerra

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Maria Madalena Nunes

Maria Madalena Nunes

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Major Paulo Roberto

Major Paulo Roberto

$403 Vol.

1%

icon for Antônio José Lira

Antônio José Lira

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Cloves José

Cloves José

$404 Vol.

1%

icon for Dionisio Carvalho

Dionisio Carvalho

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Francinaldo Leão

Francinaldo Leão

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Irmão Evandro Marques

Irmão Evandro Marques

$389 Vol.

1%

icon for Pedro Laurentino

Pedro Laurentino

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for Pastor Sena

Pastor Sena

$394 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Piauí’s two-seat Senate race shows a tight contest among incumbents Marcelo Castro (MDB) and Ciro Nogueira (PP) alongside federal deputy Júlio César (PSD), with the top three separated by single digits in AtlasIntel and GP1 surveys released in July and August 2026. Eighteen pre-candidates have registered, but only a handful register measurable support, leaving the first-place outcome sensitive to late shifts in voter preference. Ongoing political maneuvering, including reported endorsements and ticket-building ahead of the October election, sustains uncertainty. Any sustained movement in statewide or capital-city polling, coalition realignments, or turnout differentials among key regional bases could widen the gap among the leaders.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,019
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Piauí’s two-seat Senate race shows a tight contest among incumbents Marcelo Castro (MDB) and Ciro Nogueira (PP) alongside federal deputy Júlio César (PSD), with the top three separated by single digits in AtlasIntel and GP1 surveys released in July and August 2026. Eighteen pre-candidates have registered, but only a handful register measurable support, leaving the first-place outcome sensitive to late shifts in voter preference. Ongoing political maneuvering, including reported endorsements and ticket-building ahead of the October election, sustains uncertainty. Any sustained movement in statewide or capital-city polling, coalition realignments, or turnout differentials among key regional bases could widen the gap among the leaders.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,019
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marcelo Castro" at 51%, followed by "Ciro Nogueira" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $10K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Marcelo Castro" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ciro Nogueira" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.