Lula's commanding position in Sergipe for first place in the October 4, 2026 first round reflects the state's consistent northeastern voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party and its candidates, reinforced by national polling trends showing the incumbent leading first-round scenarios by several points over rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. Official campaign activities began in mid-August, with Lula's recent nomination and focus on regional economic ties and social programs aligning with local priorities, while fragmented opposition candidacies limit coordinated challenges. Trader consensus at 94.5% incorporates these structural advantages, though late developments such as significant economic shifts, candidate withdrawals, or unexpected turnout changes in key municipalities could still alter the outcome before the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95%
Clariana Barao 4.3%
Samara <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Clariana Barao
4%
Samara
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 95%
Clariana Barao 4.3%
Samara <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,057 Vol.
95%
Clariana Barao
$877 Vol.
4%
Samara
$441 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$466 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$372 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$372 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$372 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$372 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$372 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$372 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$372 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$372 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$331 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position in Sergipe for first place in the October 4, 2026 first round reflects the state's consistent northeastern voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party and its candidates, reinforced by national polling trends showing the incumbent leading first-round scenarios by several points over rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. Official campaign activities began in mid-August, with Lula's recent nomination and focus on regional economic ties and social programs aligning with local priorities, while fragmented opposition candidacies limit coordinated challenges. Trader consensus at 94.5% incorporates these structural advantages, though late developments such as significant economic shifts, candidate withdrawals, or unexpected turnout changes in key municipalities could still alter the outcome before the first-round vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$9,148End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position in Sergipe for first place in the October 4, 2026 first round reflects the state's consistent northeastern voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party and its candidates, reinforced by national polling trends showing the incumbent leading first-round scenarios by several points over rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. Official campaign activities began in mid-August, with Lula's recent nomination and focus on regional economic ties and social programs aligning with local priorities, while fragmented opposition candidacies limit coordinated challenges. Trader consensus at 94.5% incorporates these structural advantages, though late developments such as significant economic shifts, candidate withdrawals, or unexpected turnout changes in key municipalities could still alter the outcome before the first-round vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,148End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding position in Sergipe for first place in the October 4, 2026 first round reflects the state's consistent northeastern voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party and its candidates, reinforced by national polling trends showing the incumbent leading first-round scenarios by several points over rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. Official campaign activities began in mid-August, with Lula's recent nomination and focus on regional economic ties and social programs aligning with local priorities, while fragmented opposition candidacies limit coordinated challenges. Trader consensus at 94.5% incorporates these structural advantages, though late developments such as significant economic shifts, candidate withdrawals, or unexpected turnout changes in key municipalities could still alter the outcome before the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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