Skip to main content
icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
Elections·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
Elections·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul

Flavio Bolsonaro 63%

Lula 36%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Flavio Bolsonaro 63%

Lula 36%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$2,589 Vol.

63%

icon for Lula

Lula

$1,023 Vol.

36%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$277 Vol.

1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$273 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$281 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$277 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$363 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$371 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$269 Vol.

1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$343 Vol.

1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$359 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$282 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$270 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a clear edge in trader consensus for first place in Rio Grande do Sul due to the state’s consistent right-leaning voting patterns in presidential contests and his consolidation of Liberal Party (PL) support following his July 2026 nomination. National surveys show Lula ahead overall, yet southern states including Rio Grande do Sul have historically delivered stronger margins for conservative candidates focused on security and agribusiness concerns. Recent developments such as Flávio’s party convention confirmation, reconciliation with family figures after earlier audio leaks and internal disputes, and endorsements from aligned international voices have reinforced his positioning among local voters. Lula’s lower implied probability reflects these regional dynamics despite his incumbency, while scattered support for other right-wing or centrist names like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema remains limited in current pricing. The October 4 first-round timeline leaves room for late shifts in turnout or campaign momentum.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,955
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a clear edge in trader consensus for first place in Rio Grande do Sul due to the state’s consistent right-leaning voting patterns in presidential contests and his consolidation of Liberal Party (PL) support following his July 2026 nomination. National surveys show Lula ahead overall, yet southern states including Rio Grande do Sul have historically delivered stronger margins for conservative candidates focused on security and agribusiness concerns. Recent developments such as Flávio’s party convention confirmation, reconciliation with family figures after earlier audio leaks and internal disputes, and endorsements from aligned international voices have reinforced his positioning among local voters. Lula’s lower implied probability reflects these regional dynamics despite his incumbency, while scattered support for other right-wing or centrist names like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema remains limited in current pricing. The October 4 first-round timeline leaves room for late shifts in turnout or campaign momentum.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,955
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Norte?

Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Norte?

95%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

66%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

93%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 63%, followed by "Lula" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.