Michelle Bolsonaro’s confirmed PL candidacy and consistent polling lead in the Federal District’s two-seat Senate race shape trader pricing for second place, leaving a fragmented contest among Erika Kokay (PT), Bia Kicis (PL), Leila do Vôlei (PDT), and several others. Recent surveys from July and August 2026 show Michelle ahead on roughly 25 percent, with the remaining contenders clustered between 12 and 17 percent as right-wing support consolidates behind the PL ticket while left-leaning and centrist voters split across multiple names. The plurality system, combined with undecided voters and potential late alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 vote, keeps the second-place outcome tightly balanced and sensitive to turnout patterns in Brasília’s satellite cities or any campaign momentum changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBia Kicis 30%
Michelle Bolsonaro 24%
Erika Kokay 23%
Leila do Vôlei 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Bia Kicis
30%
Michelle Bolsonaro
24%
Erika Kokay
23%
Leila do Vôlei
13%
Marley
5%
Ronaldo Fonseca
5%
Avenir Rosa
4%
Zanata
4%
Guto Felício dos Santos
4%
Sebastião Coelho
3%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
3%
David Horn
2%
Tiago
1%
Bia Kicis 30%
Michelle Bolsonaro 24%
Erika Kokay 23%
Leila do Vôlei 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Bia Kicis
$1,038 Vol.
30%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$671 Vol.
24%
Erika Kokay
$315 Vol.
23%
Leila do Vôlei
$214 Vol.
13%
Marley
$61 Vol.
5%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$85 Vol.
5%
Avenir Rosa
$105 Vol.
4%
Zanata
$85 Vol.
4%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$105 Vol.
4%
Sebastião Coelho
$105 Vol.
3%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$349 Vol.
3%
David Horn
$855 Vol.
2%
Tiago
$172 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro’s confirmed PL candidacy and consistent polling lead in the Federal District’s two-seat Senate race shape trader pricing for second place, leaving a fragmented contest among Erika Kokay (PT), Bia Kicis (PL), Leila do Vôlei (PDT), and several others. Recent surveys from July and August 2026 show Michelle ahead on roughly 25 percent, with the remaining contenders clustered between 12 and 17 percent as right-wing support consolidates behind the PL ticket while left-leaning and centrist voters split across multiple names. The plurality system, combined with undecided voters and potential late alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 vote, keeps the second-place outcome tightly balanced and sensitive to turnout patterns in Brasília’s satellite cities or any campaign momentum changes.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,163End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro’s confirmed PL candidacy and consistent polling lead in the Federal District’s two-seat Senate race shape trader pricing for second place, leaving a fragmented contest among Erika Kokay (PT), Bia Kicis (PL), Leila do Vôlei (PDT), and several others. Recent surveys from July and August 2026 show Michelle ahead on roughly 25 percent, with the remaining contenders clustered between 12 and 17 percent as right-wing support consolidates behind the PL ticket while left-leaning and centrist voters split across multiple names. The plurality system, combined with undecided voters and potential late alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 vote, keeps the second-place outcome tightly balanced and sensitive to turnout patterns in Brasília’s satellite cities or any campaign momentum changes.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$4,163End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro’s confirmed PL candidacy and consistent polling lead in the Federal District’s two-seat Senate race shape trader pricing for second place, leaving a fragmented contest among Erika Kokay (PT), Bia Kicis (PL), Leila do Vôlei (PDT), and several others. Recent surveys from July and August 2026 show Michelle ahead on roughly 25 percent, with the remaining contenders clustered between 12 and 17 percent as right-wing support consolidates behind the PL ticket while left-leaning and centrist voters split across multiple names. The plurality system, combined with undecided voters and potential late alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 vote, keeps the second-place outcome tightly balanced and sensitive to turnout patterns in Brasília’s satellite cities or any campaign momentum changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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