Recent polling from July and August 2026 consistently shows Rui Costa (PT) leading Senate vote intentions in Bahia at 22–25%, with incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) in second at 16–20%, followed by Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL) in the mid-teens or lower. The PT's decision to nominate both former governors for the two available seats has reinforced expectations of a party sweep of the top positions. This positioning drives trader consensus on Wagner as the most likely second-place finisher, while Rui Costa registers lower odds for that specific outcome. Lower-tier candidates such as Professora Delliana (PSOL), Carlos Sodré, and others trail significantly in surveys, limiting their implied probabilities absent major shifts before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Jaques Wagner 61%
Professora Delliana 19%
Rui Costa 16%
Carlos Sodré 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
61%
Professora Delliana
19%
Rui Costa
16%
Carlos Sodré
4%
Angelo Coronel
2%
Marcelo Millet
1%
Gregorio Gould
1%
Marcelo Carvalho
1%
João Roma
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Jaques Wagner 61%
Professora Delliana 19%
Rui Costa 16%
Carlos Sodré 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
$1,888 Vol.
61%
Professora Delliana
$246 Vol.
19%
Rui Costa
$438 Vol.
16%
Carlos Sodré
$252 Vol.
4%
Angelo Coronel
$245 Vol.
2%
Marcelo Millet
$347 Vol.
1%
Gregorio Gould
$291 Vol.
1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$287 Vol.
1%
João Roma
$207 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$286 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 consistently shows Rui Costa (PT) leading Senate vote intentions in Bahia at 22–25%, with incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) in second at 16–20%, followed by Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL) in the mid-teens or lower. The PT's decision to nominate both former governors for the two available seats has reinforced expectations of a party sweep of the top positions. This positioning drives trader consensus on Wagner as the most likely second-place finisher, while Rui Costa registers lower odds for that specific outcome. Lower-tier candidates such as Professora Delliana (PSOL), Carlos Sodré, and others trail significantly in surveys, limiting their implied probabilities absent major shifts before the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$4,486End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 consistently shows Rui Costa (PT) leading Senate vote intentions in Bahia at 22–25%, with incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) in second at 16–20%, followed by Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL) in the mid-teens or lower. The PT's decision to nominate both former governors for the two available seats has reinforced expectations of a party sweep of the top positions. This positioning drives trader consensus on Wagner as the most likely second-place finisher, while Rui Costa registers lower odds for that specific outcome. Lower-tier candidates such as Professora Delliana (PSOL), Carlos Sodré, and others trail significantly in surveys, limiting their implied probabilities absent major shifts before the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$4,486End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from July and August 2026 consistently shows Rui Costa (PT) leading Senate vote intentions in Bahia at 22–25%, with incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) in second at 16–20%, followed by Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL) in the mid-teens or lower. The PT's decision to nominate both former governors for the two available seats has reinforced expectations of a party sweep of the top positions. This positioning drives trader consensus on Wagner as the most likely second-place finisher, while Rui Costa registers lower odds for that specific outcome. Lower-tier candidates such as Professora Delliana (PSOL), Carlos Sodré, and others trail significantly in surveys, limiting their implied probabilities absent major shifts before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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