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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Renan Santos 61%

Ronaldo Caiado 34%

Romeu Zema 3.3%

Flávio Bolsonaro 3.0%

Polymarket

$531,608 Vol.

Renan Santos 61%

Ronaldo Caiado 34%

Romeu Zema 3.3%

Flávio Bolsonaro 3.0%

Polymarket

$531,608 Vol.

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$179,216 Vol.

61%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$48,664 Vol.

34%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$21,597 Vol.

3%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$24,445 Vol.

3%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$11,070 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$8,545 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$45,245 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$12,616 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$102,407 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$12,880 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$9,903 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$20,464 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$7,754 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$9,865 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$4,083 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$9,374 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$3,481 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Renan Santos leads trader expectations for third place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote because his anti-establishment Mission Party candidacy has drawn measurable support among younger and right-leaning voters disillusioned with both the Lula government and the Bolsonaro family. Recent August polls show Santos polling in the low-to-mid single digits, often ahead of or competitive with Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO, while the top two—Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro—remain well ahead. Caiado’s established record as Goiás governor provides a more traditional center-right alternative, yet Santos’s social-media mobilization and explicit positioning outside Bolsonarism have shifted momentum in his favor since party conventions closed in early August. Fragmented conservative candidacies continue to split the anti-Lula vote without threatening the frontrunners, keeping third-place odds concentrated on these two contenders ahead of the formal campaign period.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$531,608
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Renan Santos leads trader expectations for third place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote because his anti-establishment Mission Party candidacy has drawn measurable support among younger and right-leaning voters disillusioned with both the Lula government and the Bolsonaro family. Recent August polls show Santos polling in the low-to-mid single digits, often ahead of or competitive with Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO, while the top two—Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro—remain well ahead. Caiado’s established record as Goiás governor provides a more traditional center-right alternative, yet Santos’s social-media mobilization and explicit positioning outside Bolsonarism have shifted momentum in his favor since party conventions closed in early August. Fragmented conservative candidacies continue to split the anti-Lula vote without threatening the frontrunners, keeping third-place odds concentrated on these two contenders ahead of the formal campaign period.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$531,608
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

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icon for Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

64%
icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

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9%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Renan Santos" at 61%, followed by "Ronaldo Caiado" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" has generated $531.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is "Renan Santos" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.