Lula maintains a dominant position in trader consensus for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 4 first round, reflecting his incumbency advantage, consistent national polling leads of roughly 38-42 percent, and established voter base in the state. Recent formalization of his Workers’ Party ticket with Geraldo Alckmin, alongside government initiatives on debt relief and fuel subsidies, has reinforced support ahead of the campaign launch. Flávio Bolsonaro trails significantly despite Liberal Party backing, with recent audio controversies and family tensions limiting momentum among right-leaning voters in the state. Other contenders such as Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register minimal probabilities, consistent with single-digit national survey results and limited regional traction as the field consolidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 86%
Flavio Bolsonaro 7.3%
Zema <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$11,662 Vol.
$11,662 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
86%
Flavio Bolsonaro
7%
Zema
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 86%
Flavio Bolsonaro 7.3%
Zema <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$11,662 Vol.
$11,662 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,812 Vol.
86%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,248 Vol.
7%
Zema
$967 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$576 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$813 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$531 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$525 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$485 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$484 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$473 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$491 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$649 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a dominant position in trader consensus for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 4 first round, reflecting his incumbency advantage, consistent national polling leads of roughly 38-42 percent, and established voter base in the state. Recent formalization of his Workers’ Party ticket with Geraldo Alckmin, alongside government initiatives on debt relief and fuel subsidies, has reinforced support ahead of the campaign launch. Flávio Bolsonaro trails significantly despite Liberal Party backing, with recent audio controversies and family tensions limiting momentum among right-leaning voters in the state. Other contenders such as Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register minimal probabilities, consistent with single-digit national survey results and limited regional traction as the field consolidates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$11,662End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a dominant position in trader consensus for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 4 first round, reflecting his incumbency advantage, consistent national polling leads of roughly 38-42 percent, and established voter base in the state. Recent formalization of his Workers’ Party ticket with Geraldo Alckmin, alongside government initiatives on debt relief and fuel subsidies, has reinforced support ahead of the campaign launch. Flávio Bolsonaro trails significantly despite Liberal Party backing, with recent audio controversies and family tensions limiting momentum among right-leaning voters in the state. Other contenders such as Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register minimal probabilities, consistent with single-digit national survey results and limited regional traction as the field consolidates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$11,662End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a dominant position in trader consensus for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 4 first round, reflecting his incumbency advantage, consistent national polling leads of roughly 38-42 percent, and established voter base in the state. Recent formalization of his Workers’ Party ticket with Geraldo Alckmin, alongside government initiatives on debt relief and fuel subsidies, has reinforced support ahead of the campaign launch. Flávio Bolsonaro trails significantly despite Liberal Party backing, with recent audio controversies and family tensions limiting momentum among right-leaning voters in the state. Other contenders such as Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register minimal probabilities, consistent with single-digit national survey results and limited regional traction as the field consolidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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