The Tocantins Senate race for second place remains tightly contested among more than a dozen registered candidates, with trader pricing reflecting substantial uncertainty ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) in a clear lead for first while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds the strongest position among challengers, followed closely by Carlos Gaguim (UNIÃO) and others such as Ronaldo Dimas and Vanderlei Luxemburgo. Fragmented support across parties, combined with limited name recognition for several entrants and the mechanics of electing two senators, keeps second-place probabilities bunched together. Late campaign developments, including alliances, turnout shifts in key municipalities, or additional surveys, could consolidate backing behind one contender and widen the gap reflected in current market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Guimarães 40%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 22%
Eli Borges 22%
Professor Osvaldo 20%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
47%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
22%
Eli Borges
19%
Professor Osvaldo
18%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
18%
Eduardo Gomes
18%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
18%
Fábio Ribeiro
17%
Paulo Mourão
13%
Osvany Luz
14%
Gaguim
1%
Ronaldo Dimas
1%
Nilton Santos
-
Alexandre Guimarães 40%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 22%
Eli Borges 22%
Professor Osvaldo 20%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
$80 Vol.
47%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$60 Vol.
22%
Eli Borges
$80 Vol.
19%
Professor Osvaldo
$72 Vol.
18%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$60 Vol.
18%
Eduardo Gomes
$60 Vol.
18%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$60 Vol.
18%
Fábio Ribeiro
$60 Vol.
17%
Paulo Mourão
$60 Vol.
13%
Osvany Luz
$120 Vol.
14%
Gaguim
$60 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Dimas
$60 Vol.
1%
Nilton Santos
$72 Vol.
-
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Tocantins Senate race for second place remains tightly contested among more than a dozen registered candidates, with trader pricing reflecting substantial uncertainty ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) in a clear lead for first while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds the strongest position among challengers, followed closely by Carlos Gaguim (UNIÃO) and others such as Ronaldo Dimas and Vanderlei Luxemburgo. Fragmented support across parties, combined with limited name recognition for several entrants and the mechanics of electing two senators, keeps second-place probabilities bunched together. Late campaign developments, including alliances, turnout shifts in key municipalities, or additional surveys, could consolidate backing behind one contender and widen the gap reflected in current market consensus.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$904End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Tocantins Senate race for second place remains tightly contested among more than a dozen registered candidates, with trader pricing reflecting substantial uncertainty ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) in a clear lead for first while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds the strongest position among challengers, followed closely by Carlos Gaguim (UNIÃO) and others such as Ronaldo Dimas and Vanderlei Luxemburgo. Fragmented support across parties, combined with limited name recognition for several entrants and the mechanics of electing two senators, keeps second-place probabilities bunched together. Late campaign developments, including alliances, turnout shifts in key municipalities, or additional surveys, could consolidate backing behind one contender and widen the gap reflected in current market consensus.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$904End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Tocantins Senate race for second place remains tightly contested among more than a dozen registered candidates, with trader pricing reflecting substantial uncertainty ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) in a clear lead for first while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds the strongest position among challengers, followed closely by Carlos Gaguim (UNIÃO) and others such as Ronaldo Dimas and Vanderlei Luxemburgo. Fragmented support across parties, combined with limited name recognition for several entrants and the mechanics of electing two senators, keeps second-place probabilities bunched together. Late campaign developments, including alliances, turnout shifts in key municipalities, or additional surveys, could consolidate backing behind one contender and widen the gap reflected in current market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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