Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round polling due to the state's established conservative voter base and strong identification with the Liberal Party's platform on security and economic issues. As the party's nominee since the July 2026 convention, he carries forward the regional support patterns seen in prior cycles, where right-leaning candidates have consistently outperformed nationally. National surveys show a tight overall contest with Lula, yet Santa Catarina's demographics and limited left-wing organizational strength limit alternatives. Other candidates, including independents and smaller-party figures, register negligible support. Late developments such as renewed family reconciliation or intensified campaign focus on state priorities could further solidify positioning, while an unforeseen national event or turnout shift might narrow the margin without altering the frontrunner's position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula 2.0%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
2%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Zema
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula 2.0%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,834 Vol.
97%
Lula
$280 Vol.
2%
Edmilson Costa
$270 Vol.
1%
Zema
$260 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$270 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$270 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$270 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$270 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$270 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$270 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$270 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$320 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$320 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round polling due to the state's established conservative voter base and strong identification with the Liberal Party's platform on security and economic issues. As the party's nominee since the July 2026 convention, he carries forward the regional support patterns seen in prior cycles, where right-leaning candidates have consistently outperformed nationally. National surveys show a tight overall contest with Lula, yet Santa Catarina's demographics and limited left-wing organizational strength limit alternatives. Other candidates, including independents and smaller-party figures, register negligible support. Late developments such as renewed family reconciliation or intensified campaign focus on state priorities could further solidify positioning, while an unforeseen national event or turnout shift might narrow the margin without altering the frontrunner's position.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$5,176End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round polling due to the state's established conservative voter base and strong identification with the Liberal Party's platform on security and economic issues. As the party's nominee since the July 2026 convention, he carries forward the regional support patterns seen in prior cycles, where right-leaning candidates have consistently outperformed nationally. National surveys show a tight overall contest with Lula, yet Santa Catarina's demographics and limited left-wing organizational strength limit alternatives. Other candidates, including independents and smaller-party figures, register negligible support. Late developments such as renewed family reconciliation or intensified campaign focus on state priorities could further solidify positioning, while an unforeseen national event or turnout shift might narrow the margin without altering the frontrunner's position.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,176End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round polling due to the state's established conservative voter base and strong identification with the Liberal Party's platform on security and economic issues. As the party's nominee since the July 2026 convention, he carries forward the regional support patterns seen in prior cycles, where right-leaning candidates have consistently outperformed nationally. National surveys show a tight overall contest with Lula, yet Santa Catarina's demographics and limited left-wing organizational strength limit alternatives. Other candidates, including independents and smaller-party figures, register negligible support. Late developments such as renewed family reconciliation or intensified campaign focus on state priorities could further solidify positioning, while an unforeseen national event or turnout shift might narrow the margin without altering the frontrunner's position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions