Michelle Bolsonaro’s nomination as the PL candidate and her consistent lead in recent polling anchor trader consensus around her prospects for first place in the Federal District’s two-seat Senate race. Her national profile as former first lady has consolidated right-wing support ahead of the October 2026 vote, while local contenders including incumbent Leila Barros (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), Bia Kicis, and Ronaldo Fonseca divide remaining votes across ideological lines. Party conventions this summer formalized the PL ticket and clarified the field, sustaining the current pricing amid expectations of high turnout in Brasília’s satellite cities and potential late campaign shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichelle Bolsonaro 62%
Leila do Vôlei 15%
Guto Felício dos Santos 7%
Ronaldo Fonseca 5.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
62%
Leila do Vôlei
15%
Guto Felício dos Santos
7%
Ronaldo Fonseca
6%
Avenir Rosa
6%
Bia Kicis
6%
Zanata
6%
Erika Kokay
3%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
3%
David Horn
3%
Marley
2%
Tiago
2%
Sebastião Coelho
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro 62%
Leila do Vôlei 15%
Guto Felício dos Santos 7%
Ronaldo Fonseca 5.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$383 Vol.
62%
Leila do Vôlei
$205 Vol.
15%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$43 Vol.
7%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$43 Vol.
6%
Avenir Rosa
$38 Vol.
6%
Bia Kicis
$43 Vol.
6%
Zanata
$43 Vol.
6%
Erika Kokay
$43 Vol.
3%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$65 Vol.
3%
David Horn
$43 Vol.
3%
Marley
$65 Vol.
2%
Tiago
$84 Vol.
2%
Sebastião Coelho
$86 Vol.
2%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro’s nomination as the PL candidate and her consistent lead in recent polling anchor trader consensus around her prospects for first place in the Federal District’s two-seat Senate race. Her national profile as former first lady has consolidated right-wing support ahead of the October 2026 vote, while local contenders including incumbent Leila Barros (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), Bia Kicis, and Ronaldo Fonseca divide remaining votes across ideological lines. Party conventions this summer formalized the PL ticket and clarified the field, sustaining the current pricing amid expectations of high turnout in Brasília’s satellite cities and potential late campaign shifts.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,184End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro’s nomination as the PL candidate and her consistent lead in recent polling anchor trader consensus around her prospects for first place in the Federal District’s two-seat Senate race. Her national profile as former first lady has consolidated right-wing support ahead of the October 2026 vote, while local contenders including incumbent Leila Barros (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), Bia Kicis, and Ronaldo Fonseca divide remaining votes across ideological lines. Party conventions this summer formalized the PL ticket and clarified the field, sustaining the current pricing amid expectations of high turnout in Brasília’s satellite cities and potential late campaign shifts.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,184End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro’s nomination as the PL candidate and her consistent lead in recent polling anchor trader consensus around her prospects for first place in the Federal District’s two-seat Senate race. Her national profile as former first lady has consolidated right-wing support ahead of the October 2026 vote, while local contenders including incumbent Leila Barros (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), Bia Kicis, and Ronaldo Fonseca divide remaining votes across ideological lines. Party conventions this summer formalized the PL ticket and clarified the field, sustaining the current pricing amid expectations of high turnout in Brasília’s satellite cities and potential late campaign shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions