Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round due to the state's longstanding support for the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's regional base in the Northeast. Recent state-level polling shows him at 60 percent, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and scattered minor candidates, reflecting entrenched voter preferences tied to social programs and local alliances. The campaign's mid-August start has not altered this dynamic, with no major late shifts or consolidated opposition emerging in the state. While national first-round surveys indicate a narrower contest overall, Maranhão's distinct electorate sustains trader consensus on Lula's position. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawals, health developments, or significant scandals in the final weeks before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Lula 96.9%
Renan Santos 1.0%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Renan Santos
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 96.9%
Renan Santos 1.0%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,765 Vol.
97%
Renan Santos
$385 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$467 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$467 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$467 Vol.
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$398 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$467 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$467 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$387 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$342 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$385 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$385 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$385 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round due to the state's longstanding support for the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's regional base in the Northeast. Recent state-level polling shows him at 60 percent, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and scattered minor candidates, reflecting entrenched voter preferences tied to social programs and local alliances. The campaign's mid-August start has not altered this dynamic, with no major late shifts or consolidated opposition emerging in the state. While national first-round surveys indicate a narrower contest overall, Maranhão's distinct electorate sustains trader consensus on Lula's position. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawals, health developments, or significant scandals in the final weeks before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$8,765End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round due to the state's longstanding support for the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's regional base in the Northeast. Recent state-level polling shows him at 60 percent, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and scattered minor candidates, reflecting entrenched voter preferences tied to social programs and local alliances. The campaign's mid-August start has not altered this dynamic, with no major late shifts or consolidated opposition emerging in the state. While national first-round surveys indicate a narrower contest overall, Maranhão's distinct electorate sustains trader consensus on Lula's position. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawals, health developments, or significant scandals in the final weeks before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,765End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round due to the state's longstanding support for the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's regional base in the Northeast. Recent state-level polling shows him at 60 percent, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and scattered minor candidates, reflecting entrenched voter preferences tied to social programs and local alliances. The campaign's mid-August start has not altered this dynamic, with no major late shifts or consolidated opposition emerging in the state. While national first-round surveys indicate a narrower contest overall, Maranhão's distinct electorate sustains trader consensus on Lula's position. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawals, health developments, or significant scandals in the final weeks before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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