Flavio Bolsonaro’s commanding 93% implied probability for first place in Mato Grosso reflects the state’s conservative, agribusiness-oriented electorate and consistent right-wing dominance in recent cycles. As the Liberal Party nominee officially confirmed in late July 2026 with his father’s endorsement, he consolidates the Bolsonarista base in a region where similar candidates have historically outperformed national averages. Recent national polling shows a tight overall contest with Lula, yet Mato Grosso’s demographics and party machinery favor unified conservative support. Late developments that could realistically alter the outcome include vote fragmentation among right-leaning alternatives, a major campaign scandal, or unexpected turnout shifts in the final weeks before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 93%
Lula 3.3%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
93%
Lula
3%
Clariana Barao
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 93%
Lula 3.3%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,651 Vol.
93%
Lula
$1,118 Vol.
3%
Clariana Barao
$278 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$346 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$274 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$327 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$332 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$291 Vol.
1%
Samara
$365 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$284 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$248 Vol.
1%
Zema
$316 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$332 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro’s commanding 93% implied probability for first place in Mato Grosso reflects the state’s conservative, agribusiness-oriented electorate and consistent right-wing dominance in recent cycles. As the Liberal Party nominee officially confirmed in late July 2026 with his father’s endorsement, he consolidates the Bolsonarista base in a region where similar candidates have historically outperformed national averages. Recent national polling shows a tight overall contest with Lula, yet Mato Grosso’s demographics and party machinery favor unified conservative support. Late developments that could realistically alter the outcome include vote fragmentation among right-leaning alternatives, a major campaign scandal, or unexpected turnout shifts in the final weeks before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$7,162End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro’s commanding 93% implied probability for first place in Mato Grosso reflects the state’s conservative, agribusiness-oriented electorate and consistent right-wing dominance in recent cycles. As the Liberal Party nominee officially confirmed in late July 2026 with his father’s endorsement, he consolidates the Bolsonarista base in a region where similar candidates have historically outperformed national averages. Recent national polling shows a tight overall contest with Lula, yet Mato Grosso’s demographics and party machinery favor unified conservative support. Late developments that could realistically alter the outcome include vote fragmentation among right-leaning alternatives, a major campaign scandal, or unexpected turnout shifts in the final weeks before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,162End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro’s commanding 93% implied probability for first place in Mato Grosso reflects the state’s conservative, agribusiness-oriented electorate and consistent right-wing dominance in recent cycles. As the Liberal Party nominee officially confirmed in late July 2026 with his father’s endorsement, he consolidates the Bolsonarista base in a region where similar candidates have historically outperformed national averages. Recent national polling shows a tight overall contest with Lula, yet Mato Grosso’s demographics and party machinery favor unified conservative support. Late developments that could realistically alter the outcome include vote fragmentation among right-leaning alternatives, a major campaign scandal, or unexpected turnout shifts in the final weeks before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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