Lula holds the strongest position in Amapá for first-round votes due to the Workers' Party's established regional base in northern states, where the incumbent has historically drawn solid support from voters prioritizing social programs and Amazon-related policies. Recent national polls from mid-August 2026 show Lula at 38-42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-36%, with the gap likely wider locally given Amapá's voting patterns. The official campaign launch on August 16 and party conventions have reinforced Lula's frontrunner status without shifting state-level dynamics. Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father's endorsement for the Liberal Party, trails as the primary challenger but faces structural headwinds in the region. Minor candidates including Pablo Marçal, Hertz Dias, and others register negligible shares in available surveys, reflecting limited organization or appeal in Amapá. Trader pricing aligns with these patterns ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 68%
Flavio Bolsonaro 26%
Pablo Marçal 3.3%
Hertz Dias 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
68%
Flavio Bolsonaro
26%
Pablo Marçal
3%
Hertz Dias
3%
Zema
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Samara
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 68%
Flavio Bolsonaro 26%
Pablo Marçal 3.3%
Hertz Dias 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$682 Vol.
68%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$533 Vol.
26%
Pablo Marçal
$764 Vol.
3%
Hertz Dias
$529 Vol.
3%
Zema
$468 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$420 Vol.
1%
Samara
$462 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$454 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$143 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$143 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$431 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$410 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$338 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in Amapá for first-round votes due to the Workers' Party's established regional base in northern states, where the incumbent has historically drawn solid support from voters prioritizing social programs and Amazon-related policies. Recent national polls from mid-August 2026 show Lula at 38-42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-36%, with the gap likely wider locally given Amapá's voting patterns. The official campaign launch on August 16 and party conventions have reinforced Lula's frontrunner status without shifting state-level dynamics. Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father's endorsement for the Liberal Party, trails as the primary challenger but faces structural headwinds in the region. Minor candidates including Pablo Marçal, Hertz Dias, and others register negligible shares in available surveys, reflecting limited organization or appeal in Amapá. Trader pricing aligns with these patterns ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$5,776End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in Amapá for first-round votes due to the Workers' Party's established regional base in northern states, where the incumbent has historically drawn solid support from voters prioritizing social programs and Amazon-related policies. Recent national polls from mid-August 2026 show Lula at 38-42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-36%, with the gap likely wider locally given Amapá's voting patterns. The official campaign launch on August 16 and party conventions have reinforced Lula's frontrunner status without shifting state-level dynamics. Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father's endorsement for the Liberal Party, trails as the primary challenger but faces structural headwinds in the region. Minor candidates including Pablo Marçal, Hertz Dias, and others register negligible shares in available surveys, reflecting limited organization or appeal in Amapá. Trader pricing aligns with these patterns ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,776End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds the strongest position in Amapá for first-round votes due to the Workers' Party's established regional base in northern states, where the incumbent has historically drawn solid support from voters prioritizing social programs and Amazon-related policies. Recent national polls from mid-August 2026 show Lula at 38-42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-36%, with the gap likely wider locally given Amapá's voting patterns. The official campaign launch on August 16 and party conventions have reinforced Lula's frontrunner status without shifting state-level dynamics. Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father's endorsement for the Liberal Party, trails as the primary challenger but faces structural headwinds in the region. Minor candidates including Pablo Marçal, Hertz Dias, and others register negligible shares in available surveys, reflecting limited organization or appeal in Amapá. Trader pricing aligns with these patterns ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions