Flavio Bolsonaro's commanding position in Roraima reflects the state's conservative electoral patterns and alignment with Liberal Party (PL) support, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro's prior regional strength and Flavio's July 2026 party nomination as the right-wing standard-bearer. National polling shows the race tightening between Flavio and incumbent Lula ahead of the October 4 first round, yet trader consensus assigns minimal odds to challengers including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema breaking through locally. Potential shifts could arise from last-minute campaign events, turnout variations among northern border voters, or stronger-than-expected Lula mobilization, though structural barriers for alternatives remain high with only weeks remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 95.6%
Lula 1.6%
Samara <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
96%
Lula
2%
Samara
1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 95.6%
Lula 1.6%
Samara <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,711 Vol.
96%
Lula
$487 Vol.
2%
Samara
$333 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$363 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$334 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$327 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$413 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$444 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$366 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$407 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$363 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$363 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$331 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro's commanding position in Roraima reflects the state's conservative electoral patterns and alignment with Liberal Party (PL) support, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro's prior regional strength and Flavio's July 2026 party nomination as the right-wing standard-bearer. National polling shows the race tightening between Flavio and incumbent Lula ahead of the October 4 first round, yet trader consensus assigns minimal odds to challengers including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema breaking through locally. Potential shifts could arise from last-minute campaign events, turnout variations among northern border voters, or stronger-than-expected Lula mobilization, though structural barriers for alternatives remain high with only weeks remaining.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$7,245End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro's commanding position in Roraima reflects the state's conservative electoral patterns and alignment with Liberal Party (PL) support, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro's prior regional strength and Flavio's July 2026 party nomination as the right-wing standard-bearer. National polling shows the race tightening between Flavio and incumbent Lula ahead of the October 4 first round, yet trader consensus assigns minimal odds to challengers including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema breaking through locally. Potential shifts could arise from last-minute campaign events, turnout variations among northern border voters, or stronger-than-expected Lula mobilization, though structural barriers for alternatives remain high with only weeks remaining.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,245End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro's commanding position in Roraima reflects the state's conservative electoral patterns and alignment with Liberal Party (PL) support, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro's prior regional strength and Flavio's July 2026 party nomination as the right-wing standard-bearer. National polling shows the race tightening between Flavio and incumbent Lula ahead of the October 4 first round, yet trader consensus assigns minimal odds to challengers including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema breaking through locally. Potential shifts could arise from last-minute campaign events, turnout variations among northern border voters, or stronger-than-expected Lula mobilization, though structural barriers for alternatives remain high with only weeks remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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