The tight contest for second place in Santa Catarina’s 2026 Senate election reflects closely matched polling between leading PL candidates Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro, alongside lower support for Esperidião Amin and others. Recent surveys from July show the pair essentially tied or alternating in first- and second-vote intentions for the two available seats, with de Toni benefiting from local party networks and endorsements while Bolsonaro’s move from Rio de Janeiro has split bolsonarista support and drawn elevated rejection rates. Party negotiations over a pure PL slate versus broader alliances, combined with voter preference for state-based contenders, continue to compress probabilities ahead of the October vote. Any shift in alliances, turnout patterns among PL voters, or late polling movement could widen the gap among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carol de Toni 27%
Carlos Bolsonaro 23%
Afrânio Boppré 6%
Esperidião Amin 5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carol de Toni
27%
Carlos Bolsonaro
23%
Afrânio Boppré
6%
Esperidião Amin
5%
Jeferson da Rocha
5%
Lunelli
4%
Marcos Dorval
3%
Marlene Soccas
3%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
3%
Carol
2%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
2%
Décio Lima
2%
Joaninha de Oliveira
1%
Carol de Toni 27%
Carlos Bolsonaro 23%
Afrânio Boppré 6%
Esperidião Amin 5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carol de Toni
$1,181 Vol.
27%
Carlos Bolsonaro
$1,086 Vol.
23%
Afrânio Boppré
$227 Vol.
6%
Esperidião Amin
$95 Vol.
5%
Jeferson da Rocha
$494 Vol.
5%
Lunelli
$259 Vol.
4%
Marcos Dorval
$95 Vol.
3%
Marlene Soccas
$95 Vol.
3%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$95 Vol.
3%
Carol
$136 Vol.
2%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$114 Vol.
2%
Décio Lima
$190 Vol.
2%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$269 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for second place in Santa Catarina’s 2026 Senate election reflects closely matched polling between leading PL candidates Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro, alongside lower support for Esperidião Amin and others. Recent surveys from July show the pair essentially tied or alternating in first- and second-vote intentions for the two available seats, with de Toni benefiting from local party networks and endorsements while Bolsonaro’s move from Rio de Janeiro has split bolsonarista support and drawn elevated rejection rates. Party negotiations over a pure PL slate versus broader alliances, combined with voter preference for state-based contenders, continue to compress probabilities ahead of the October vote. Any shift in alliances, turnout patterns among PL voters, or late polling movement could widen the gap among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$4,331End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for second place in Santa Catarina’s 2026 Senate election reflects closely matched polling between leading PL candidates Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro, alongside lower support for Esperidião Amin and others. Recent surveys from July show the pair essentially tied or alternating in first- and second-vote intentions for the two available seats, with de Toni benefiting from local party networks and endorsements while Bolsonaro’s move from Rio de Janeiro has split bolsonarista support and drawn elevated rejection rates. Party negotiations over a pure PL slate versus broader alliances, combined with voter preference for state-based contenders, continue to compress probabilities ahead of the October vote. Any shift in alliances, turnout patterns among PL voters, or late polling movement could widen the gap among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$4,331End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for second place in Santa Catarina’s 2026 Senate election reflects closely matched polling between leading PL candidates Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro, alongside lower support for Esperidião Amin and others. Recent surveys from July show the pair essentially tied or alternating in first- and second-vote intentions for the two available seats, with de Toni benefiting from local party networks and endorsements while Bolsonaro’s move from Rio de Janeiro has split bolsonarista support and drawn elevated rejection rates. Party negotiations over a pure PL slate versus broader alliances, combined with voter preference for state-based contenders, continue to compress probabilities ahead of the October vote. Any shift in alliances, turnout patterns among PL voters, or late polling movement could widen the gap among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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