Flávio Bolsonaro's position as the Liberal Party nominee, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, drives the 97% trader consensus for first place in Rondônia's October 4 first-round vote. The northern state's conservative electorate and established PL organizational networks, including local Senate representation, reinforce this alignment in national contests. Recent campaign launches and regional outreach have further consolidated support ahead of the two-round system. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the frontrunner, an unexpectedly strong showing by contenders like Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado, or shifts in voter turnout could still alter the outcome, though current alignments indicate limited near-term volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula 1.7%
Renan Santos <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
2%
Renan Santos
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Zema
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula 1.7%
Renan Santos <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,881 Vol.
97%
Lula
$467 Vol.
2%
Renan Santos
$341 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$341 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$390 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$331 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$376 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$341 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$376 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$376 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$376 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$341 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$370 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's position as the Liberal Party nominee, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, drives the 97% trader consensus for first place in Rondônia's October 4 first-round vote. The northern state's conservative electorate and established PL organizational networks, including local Senate representation, reinforce this alignment in national contests. Recent campaign launches and regional outreach have further consolidated support ahead of the two-round system. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the frontrunner, an unexpectedly strong showing by contenders like Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado, or shifts in voter turnout could still alter the outcome, though current alignments indicate limited near-term volatility.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$7,305End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's position as the Liberal Party nominee, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, drives the 97% trader consensus for first place in Rondônia's October 4 first-round vote. The northern state's conservative electorate and established PL organizational networks, including local Senate representation, reinforce this alignment in national contests. Recent campaign launches and regional outreach have further consolidated support ahead of the two-round system. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the frontrunner, an unexpectedly strong showing by contenders like Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado, or shifts in voter turnout could still alter the outcome, though current alignments indicate limited near-term volatility.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,305End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro's position as the Liberal Party nominee, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, drives the 97% trader consensus for first place in Rondônia's October 4 first-round vote. The northern state's conservative electorate and established PL organizational networks, including local Senate representation, reinforce this alignment in national contests. Recent campaign launches and regional outreach have further consolidated support ahead of the two-round system. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the frontrunner, an unexpectedly strong showing by contenders like Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado, or shifts in voter turnout could still alter the outcome, though current alignments indicate limited near-term volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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