Carlos Bolsonaro leads trader sentiment for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4, 2026, Federal Senate election at 58.5% implied probability, ahead of Carol de Toni at 35.5%, with other candidates well behind. Both PL nominees benefit from party coordination and endorsements tied to former President Jair Bolsonaro’s network, though internal tensions over dual candidacies from the same ticket have surfaced. Recent July polling showed Carlos ahead on first-preference votes and the pair dominating overall, keeping separation modest amid low name recognition for rivals and the state’s two-seat structure. Upcoming campaign events and further surveys could widen or close gaps before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos Bolsonaro 59%
Carol de Toni 36%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado 1.7%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter 1.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
59%
Carol de Toni
36%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
2%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
2%
Joaninha de Oliveira
1%
Afrânio Boppré
1%
Carol
1%
Décio Lima
1%
Esperidião Amin
1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 59%
Carol de Toni 36%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado 1.7%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter 1.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$879 Vol.
59%
Carol de Toni
$1,385 Vol.
36%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$529 Vol.
2%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$208 Vol.
2%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$254 Vol.
1%
Afrânio Boppré
$224 Vol.
1%
Carol
$208 Vol.
1%
Décio Lima
$224 Vol.
1%
Esperidião Amin
$208 Vol.
1%
Marcos Dorval
$176 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$297 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$208 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$283 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Carlos Bolsonaro leads trader sentiment for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4, 2026, Federal Senate election at 58.5% implied probability, ahead of Carol de Toni at 35.5%, with other candidates well behind. Both PL nominees benefit from party coordination and endorsements tied to former President Jair Bolsonaro’s network, though internal tensions over dual candidacies from the same ticket have surfaced. Recent July polling showed Carlos ahead on first-preference votes and the pair dominating overall, keeping separation modest amid low name recognition for rivals and the state’s two-seat structure. Upcoming campaign events and further surveys could widen or close gaps before the vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$5,086End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Carlos Bolsonaro leads trader sentiment for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4, 2026, Federal Senate election at 58.5% implied probability, ahead of Carol de Toni at 35.5%, with other candidates well behind. Both PL nominees benefit from party coordination and endorsements tied to former President Jair Bolsonaro’s network, though internal tensions over dual candidacies from the same ticket have surfaced. Recent July polling showed Carlos ahead on first-preference votes and the pair dominating overall, keeping separation modest amid low name recognition for rivals and the state’s two-seat structure. Upcoming campaign events and further surveys could widen or close gaps before the vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,086End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Carlos Bolsonaro leads trader sentiment for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4, 2026, Federal Senate election at 58.5% implied probability, ahead of Carol de Toni at 35.5%, with other candidates well behind. Both PL nominees benefit from party coordination and endorsements tied to former President Jair Bolsonaro’s network, though internal tensions over dual candidacies from the same ticket have surfaced. Recent July polling showed Carlos ahead on first-preference votes and the pair dominating overall, keeping separation modest amid low name recognition for rivals and the state’s two-seat structure. Upcoming campaign events and further surveys could widen or close gaps before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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