Lula's commanding national polling lead of roughly 40-42% in recent surveys, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and other contenders, underpins trader consensus that he will finish first in Pará's October 4 first-round vote. As incumbent president seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from Workers' Party organizational strength in northern states and recent campaign launch activities that highlight economic measures such as debt relief. The official campaign period, now underway, and limited polling fragmentation among right-leaning options like Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further consolidate this positioning. Market pricing reflects these dynamics while allowing for shifts from late regional developments or turnout variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 90%
Flavio Bolsonaro 5.8%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.8%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
90%
Flavio Bolsonaro
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
3%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 90%
Flavio Bolsonaro 5.8%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.8%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,211 Vol.
90%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$645 Vol.
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
$246 Vol.
3%
Edmilson Costa
$388 Vol.
1%
Samara
$392 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$338 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$358 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$396 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$407 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$357 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$378 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$269 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$358 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding national polling lead of roughly 40-42% in recent surveys, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and other contenders, underpins trader consensus that he will finish first in Pará's October 4 first-round vote. As incumbent president seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from Workers' Party organizational strength in northern states and recent campaign launch activities that highlight economic measures such as debt relief. The official campaign period, now underway, and limited polling fragmentation among right-leaning options like Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further consolidate this positioning. Market pricing reflects these dynamics while allowing for shifts from late regional developments or turnout variations.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$9,743End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding national polling lead of roughly 40-42% in recent surveys, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and other contenders, underpins trader consensus that he will finish first in Pará's October 4 first-round vote. As incumbent president seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from Workers' Party organizational strength in northern states and recent campaign launch activities that highlight economic measures such as debt relief. The official campaign period, now underway, and limited polling fragmentation among right-leaning options like Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further consolidate this positioning. Market pricing reflects these dynamics while allowing for shifts from late regional developments or turnout variations.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,743End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding national polling lead of roughly 40-42% in recent surveys, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and other contenders, underpins trader consensus that he will finish first in Pará's October 4 first-round vote. As incumbent president seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from Workers' Party organizational strength in northern states and recent campaign launch activities that highlight economic measures such as debt relief. The official campaign period, now underway, and limited polling fragmentation among right-leaning options like Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further consolidate this positioning. Market pricing reflects these dynamics while allowing for shifts from late regional developments or turnout variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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