Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Tel Aviv on August 23 centered near 25–26°C, aligning with the market's leading 52% implied probability for 26°C. Typical late-August conditions feature Mediterranean sea surface temperatures sustaining overnight warmth, limited radiative cooling under humid subtropical air masses, and dominance of high pressure suppressing advection of cooler air. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering around these values with low spread, reflecting the absence of disruptive synoptic features such as troughs or strong winds. Historical August minima average 24–26°C, providing a stable baseline that reinforces trader consensus on these bins while assigning minimal odds to outliers below 23°C or above 28°C absent major model shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 23?
26°C 56%
25°C 22%
24°C 20%
27°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
19%
24°C
20%
25°C
22%
26°C
52%
27°C
20%
28°C
19%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 56%
25°C 22%
24°C 20%
27°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
21°C or below
$97 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$194 Vol.
1%
23°C
$9 Vol.
19%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$25 Vol.
52%
27°C
$0 Vol.
20%
28°C
$14 Vol.
19%
29°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$259 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Tel Aviv on August 23 centered near 25–26°C, aligning with the market's leading 52% implied probability for 26°C. Typical late-August conditions feature Mediterranean sea surface temperatures sustaining overnight warmth, limited radiative cooling under humid subtropical air masses, and dominance of high pressure suppressing advection of cooler air. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering around these values with low spread, reflecting the absence of disruptive synoptic features such as troughs or strong winds. Historical August minima average 24–26°C, providing a stable baseline that reinforces trader consensus on these bins while assigning minimal odds to outliers below 23°C or above 28°C absent major model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$808End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Tel Aviv on August 23 centered near 25–26°C, aligning with the market's leading 52% implied probability for 26°C. Typical late-August conditions feature Mediterranean sea surface temperatures sustaining overnight warmth, limited radiative cooling under humid subtropical air masses, and dominance of high pressure suppressing advection of cooler air. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering around these values with low spread, reflecting the absence of disruptive synoptic features such as troughs or strong winds. Historical August minima average 24–26°C, providing a stable baseline that reinforces trader consensus on these bins while assigning minimal odds to outliers below 23°C or above 28°C absent major model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$808End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Tel Aviv on August 23 centered near 25–26°C, aligning with the market's leading 52% implied probability for 26°C. Typical late-August conditions feature Mediterranean sea surface temperatures sustaining overnight warmth, limited radiative cooling under humid subtropical air masses, and dominance of high pressure suppressing advection of cooler air. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering around these values with low spread, reflecting the absence of disruptive synoptic features such as troughs or strong winds. Historical August minima average 24–26°C, providing a stable baseline that reinforces trader consensus on these bins while assigning minimal odds to outliers below 23°C or above 28°C absent major model shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions