**Model consensus from major global forecasting systems positions a peak of 32°C as the most probable outcome for Ankara on August 24, aligning with the market's 54.5% implied probability for that threshold.** Multiple runs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance valid as of August 22, indicate sunny conditions, light northeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover under a stable high-pressure regime typical of late-summer subsidence over central Anatolia, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33°C. Recent observations show Ankara temperatures tracking slightly above seasonal normals amid persistent dry air (dew points in the mid-teens Celsius), with no incoming frontal systems or moisture advection expected to alter the thermal profile substantially before resolution. Ensemble spread remains modest but allows for 1–2°C variability from minor timing shifts in diurnal heating or boundary-layer mixing. Updated model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours represent the primary catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on August 24?
Highest temperature in Ankara on August 24?
32°C 55%
33°C 21%
31°C 20%
30°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
20%
32°C
55%
33°C
21%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
1%
32°C 55%
33°C 21%
31°C 20%
30°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
28°C or below
$154 Vol.
1%
29°C
$49 Vol.
1%
30°C
$46 Vol.
5%
31°C
$329 Vol.
20%
32°C
$472 Vol.
55%
33°C
$212 Vol.
21%
34°C
$109 Vol.
3%
35°C
$56 Vol.
2%
36°C
$37 Vol.
1%
37°C
$118 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$224 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from major global forecasting systems positions a peak of 32°C as the most probable outcome for Ankara on August 24, aligning with the market's 54.5% implied probability for that threshold.** Multiple runs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance valid as of August 22, indicate sunny conditions, light northeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover under a stable high-pressure regime typical of late-summer subsidence over central Anatolia, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33°C. Recent observations show Ankara temperatures tracking slightly above seasonal normals amid persistent dry air (dew points in the mid-teens Celsius), with no incoming frontal systems or moisture advection expected to alter the thermal profile substantially before resolution. Ensemble spread remains modest but allows for 1–2°C variability from minor timing shifts in diurnal heating or boundary-layer mixing. Updated model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours represent the primary catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,806End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from major global forecasting systems positions a peak of 32°C as the most probable outcome for Ankara on August 24, aligning with the market's 54.5% implied probability for that threshold.** Multiple runs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance valid as of August 22, indicate sunny conditions, light northeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover under a stable high-pressure regime typical of late-summer subsidence over central Anatolia, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33°C. Recent observations show Ankara temperatures tracking slightly above seasonal normals amid persistent dry air (dew points in the mid-teens Celsius), with no incoming frontal systems or moisture advection expected to alter the thermal profile substantially before resolution. Ensemble spread remains modest but allows for 1–2°C variability from minor timing shifts in diurnal heating or boundary-layer mixing. Updated model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours represent the primary catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,806End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Model consensus from major global forecasting systems positions a peak of 32°C as the most probable outcome for Ankara on August 24, aligning with the market's 54.5% implied probability for that threshold.** Multiple runs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance valid as of August 22, indicate sunny conditions, light northeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover under a stable high-pressure regime typical of late-summer subsidence over central Anatolia, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33°C. Recent observations show Ankara temperatures tracking slightly above seasonal normals amid persistent dry air (dew points in the mid-teens Celsius), with no incoming frontal systems or moisture advection expected to alter the thermal profile substantially before resolution. Ensemble spread remains modest but allows for 1–2°C variability from minor timing shifts in diurnal heating or boundary-layer mixing. Updated model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours represent the primary catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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