Marina Silva and Simone Tebet lead voter intentions in the crowded São Paulo Senate contest for the two seats renewing on October 4, 2026, with recent polls placing them ahead of Guilherme Derrite and other right-leaning names amid a split conservative field. Lula's early endorsement of both, which drew an electoral fine for pre-campaign activity, underscores their alignment with the national government base while formal campaigning opened only in mid-August. Trader consensus on second-place odds remains tight due to narrow polling margins, overlapping centrist and progressive support, and uncertainty over turnout and preference flows in the single-round vote. Upcoming debates, coalition adjustments, and any late endorsements could reorder the finish among the top tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarina Silva 38%
Simone Tebet 34%
Guilherme Derrite 20%
Salles 5.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
38%
Simone Tebet
34%
Guilherme Derrite
20%
Salles
6%
Petter Maahs
6%
Soninha Francine
5%
William Teixeira
3%
Weller Gonçalves
3%
Maíra de Souza
2%
Marcio Alves
1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
1%
Geraldo Rufino
1%
André do Prado
<1%
Marina Silva 38%
Simone Tebet 34%
Guilherme Derrite 20%
Salles 5.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
$1,406 Vol.
38%
Simone Tebet
$827 Vol.
34%
Guilherme Derrite
$552 Vol.
20%
Salles
$359 Vol.
6%
Petter Maahs
$254 Vol.
6%
Soninha Francine
$284 Vol.
5%
William Teixeira
$294 Vol.
3%
Weller Gonçalves
$252 Vol.
3%
Maíra de Souza
$263 Vol.
2%
Marcio Alves
$292 Vol.
1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$292 Vol.
1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$290 Vol.
1%
Geraldo Rufino
$270 Vol.
1%
André do Prado
$286 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marina Silva and Simone Tebet lead voter intentions in the crowded São Paulo Senate contest for the two seats renewing on October 4, 2026, with recent polls placing them ahead of Guilherme Derrite and other right-leaning names amid a split conservative field. Lula's early endorsement of both, which drew an electoral fine for pre-campaign activity, underscores their alignment with the national government base while formal campaigning opened only in mid-August. Trader consensus on second-place odds remains tight due to narrow polling margins, overlapping centrist and progressive support, and uncertainty over turnout and preference flows in the single-round vote. Upcoming debates, coalition adjustments, and any late endorsements could reorder the finish among the top tier.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$5,919End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marina Silva and Simone Tebet lead voter intentions in the crowded São Paulo Senate contest for the two seats renewing on October 4, 2026, with recent polls placing them ahead of Guilherme Derrite and other right-leaning names amid a split conservative field. Lula's early endorsement of both, which drew an electoral fine for pre-campaign activity, underscores their alignment with the national government base while formal campaigning opened only in mid-August. Trader consensus on second-place odds remains tight due to narrow polling margins, overlapping centrist and progressive support, and uncertainty over turnout and preference flows in the single-round vote. Upcoming debates, coalition adjustments, and any late endorsements could reorder the finish among the top tier.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,919End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marina Silva and Simone Tebet lead voter intentions in the crowded São Paulo Senate contest for the two seats renewing on October 4, 2026, with recent polls placing them ahead of Guilherme Derrite and other right-leaning names amid a split conservative field. Lula's early endorsement of both, which drew an electoral fine for pre-campaign activity, underscores their alignment with the national government base while formal campaigning opened only in mid-August. Trader consensus on second-place odds remains tight due to narrow polling margins, overlapping centrist and progressive support, and uncertainty over turnout and preference flows in the single-round vote. Upcoming debates, coalition adjustments, and any late endorsements could reorder the finish among the top tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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