Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data shows a fragmented field for Paraná’s two open Senate seats ahead of the October 4 election, with Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) at 19%, followed by technical ties between Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) and Filipe Barros (PL) near 17%, and Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) and Gleisi Hoffmann (PT) close behind. Party conventions in early August locked in nine candidacies, amplifying vote splitting among right-leaning options while left and center candidates draw from distinct bases. Dallagnol’s pending eligibility challenge before the Electoral Justice adds uncertainty. These narrow margins and shifting alliances among the top five keep second-place probabilities clustered, with any late consolidation, turnout shifts in key regions, or resolution of legal questions likely to reorder the pack before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFilipe Barros 23%
Deltan Dallagnol 21%
Cristina Reis Graeml 19%
Alexandre Curi 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Filipe Barros
23%
Deltan Dallagnol
21%
Cristina Reis Graeml
19%
Alexandre Curi
16%
Gleisi
7%
Dr. Rosinha
5%
Joaquim do MLB
4%
Karen Guerreiro
4%
Marcelo Marcelino
4%
Filipe Barros 23%
Deltan Dallagnol 21%
Cristina Reis Graeml 19%
Alexandre Curi 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Filipe Barros
$120 Vol.
23%
Deltan Dallagnol
$91 Vol.
21%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$93 Vol.
19%
Alexandre Curi
$699 Vol.
16%
Gleisi
$93 Vol.
7%
Dr. Rosinha
$93 Vol.
5%
Joaquim do MLB
$122 Vol.
4%
Karen Guerreiro
$138 Vol.
4%
Marcelo Marcelino
$165 Vol.
4%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data shows a fragmented field for Paraná’s two open Senate seats ahead of the October 4 election, with Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) at 19%, followed by technical ties between Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) and Filipe Barros (PL) near 17%, and Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) and Gleisi Hoffmann (PT) close behind. Party conventions in early August locked in nine candidacies, amplifying vote splitting among right-leaning options while left and center candidates draw from distinct bases. Dallagnol’s pending eligibility challenge before the Electoral Justice adds uncertainty. These narrow margins and shifting alliances among the top five keep second-place probabilities clustered, with any late consolidation, turnout shifts in key regions, or resolution of legal questions likely to reorder the pack before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$1,614End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data shows a fragmented field for Paraná’s two open Senate seats ahead of the October 4 election, with Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) at 19%, followed by technical ties between Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) and Filipe Barros (PL) near 17%, and Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) and Gleisi Hoffmann (PT) close behind. Party conventions in early August locked in nine candidacies, amplifying vote splitting among right-leaning options while left and center candidates draw from distinct bases. Dallagnol’s pending eligibility challenge before the Electoral Justice adds uncertainty. These narrow margins and shifting alliances among the top five keep second-place probabilities clustered, with any late consolidation, turnout shifts in key regions, or resolution of legal questions likely to reorder the pack before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,614End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data shows a fragmented field for Paraná’s two open Senate seats ahead of the October 4 election, with Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) at 19%, followed by technical ties between Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) and Filipe Barros (PL) near 17%, and Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) and Gleisi Hoffmann (PT) close behind. Party conventions in early August locked in nine candidacies, amplifying vote splitting among right-leaning options while left and center candidates draw from distinct bases. Dallagnol’s pending eligibility challenge before the Electoral Justice adds uncertainty. These narrow margins and shifting alliances among the top five keep second-place probabilities clustered, with any late consolidation, turnout shifts in key regions, or resolution of legal questions likely to reorder the pack before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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