Recent polling in São Paulo shows Marina Silva and Simone Tebet holding narrow leads or statistical ties for the top Senate spots, with Guilherme Derrite close behind amid a fragmented field that includes Ricardo Salles and André do Prado. High undecided shares—often exceeding 50 percent—reflect voter volatility this far from the October 4 vote, keeping first-place probabilities tightly bunched in trader assessments. Name recognition from prior ministerial and legislative roles anchors support for the frontrunners, while security and environmental policy emphases differentiate challengers. Further separation could emerge from party conventions, early advertising, or voter shifts on economic and public-safety issues as the official campaign intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarina Silva 39%
Guilherme Derrite 32%
Simone Tebet 28%
Salles 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
39%
Guilherme Derrite
32%
Simone Tebet
23%
Salles
5%
Soninha Francine
2%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
2%
Geraldo Rufino
2%
Maíra de Souza
2%
André do Prado
2%
William Teixeira
1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
1%
Marcio Alves
1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Marina Silva 39%
Guilherme Derrite 32%
Simone Tebet 28%
Salles 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
$844 Vol.
39%
Guilherme Derrite
$953 Vol.
32%
Simone Tebet
$394 Vol.
23%
Salles
$744 Vol.
5%
Soninha Francine
$116 Vol.
2%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$134 Vol.
2%
Geraldo Rufino
$127 Vol.
2%
Maíra de Souza
$95 Vol.
2%
André do Prado
$191 Vol.
2%
William Teixeira
$217 Vol.
1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$139 Vol.
1%
Marcio Alves
$171 Vol.
1%
Weller Gonçalves
$132 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$154 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in São Paulo shows Marina Silva and Simone Tebet holding narrow leads or statistical ties for the top Senate spots, with Guilherme Derrite close behind amid a fragmented field that includes Ricardo Salles and André do Prado. High undecided shares—often exceeding 50 percent—reflect voter volatility this far from the October 4 vote, keeping first-place probabilities tightly bunched in trader assessments. Name recognition from prior ministerial and legislative roles anchors support for the frontrunners, while security and environmental policy emphases differentiate challengers. Further separation could emerge from party conventions, early advertising, or voter shifts on economic and public-safety issues as the official campaign intensifies.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$4,411End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in São Paulo shows Marina Silva and Simone Tebet holding narrow leads or statistical ties for the top Senate spots, with Guilherme Derrite close behind amid a fragmented field that includes Ricardo Salles and André do Prado. High undecided shares—often exceeding 50 percent—reflect voter volatility this far from the October 4 vote, keeping first-place probabilities tightly bunched in trader assessments. Name recognition from prior ministerial and legislative roles anchors support for the frontrunners, while security and environmental policy emphases differentiate challengers. Further separation could emerge from party conventions, early advertising, or voter shifts on economic and public-safety issues as the official campaign intensifies.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$4,411End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in São Paulo shows Marina Silva and Simone Tebet holding narrow leads or statistical ties for the top Senate spots, with Guilherme Derrite close behind amid a fragmented field that includes Ricardo Salles and André do Prado. High undecided shares—often exceeding 50 percent—reflect voter volatility this far from the October 4 vote, keeping first-place probabilities tightly bunched in trader assessments. Name recognition from prior ministerial and legislative roles anchors support for the frontrunners, while security and environmental policy emphases differentiate challengers. Further separation could emerge from party conventions, early advertising, or voter shifts on economic and public-safety issues as the official campaign intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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