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Politics·Brazil

Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place

Marília Arraes 74%

Humberto Costa 19.9%

Mendonça Filho 7.3%

Carlos Sant'Anna 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Marília Arraes 74%

Humberto Costa 19.9%

Mendonça Filho 7.3%

Carlos Sant'Anna 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Marília Arraes

Marília Arraes

$5,224 Vol.

74%

icon for Humberto Costa

Humberto Costa

$467 Vol.

20%

icon for Mendonça Filho

Mendonça Filho

$146 Vol.

7%

icon for Carlos Sant'Anna

Carlos Sant'Anna

$143 Vol.

3%

icon for Samuel Timoteo

Samuel Timoteo

$168 Vol.

3%

icon for Mailson da Silva Neto

Mailson da Silva Neto

$174 Vol.

3%

icon for Paulo Rubem Santiago

Paulo Rubem Santiago

$146 Vol.

2%

icon for Túlio Gadêlha

Túlio Gadêlha

$146 Vol.

1%

icon for Gorett Bitu

Gorett Bitu

$146 Vol.

1%

icon for Pastor Gilvan Costa

Pastor Gilvan Costa

$146 Vol.

1%

icon for Eduardo da Fonte

Eduardo da Fonte

$143 Vol.

1%

icon for Mariano Macedo

Mariano Macedo

$154 Vol.

1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4, 2026, Senate election at 73.5%, reflecting consistent polling advantages over Humberto Costa (PT) at 19.8% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 7.0%. Recent Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data surveys show Arraes ahead with 18–42% voting intentions, buoyed by PDT positioning within the Popular Front coalition and emphasis on national issues tied to the Lula administration. Costa, seeking a third term, trails amid competition for the second seat from right-leaning challengers, while recent developments such as Miguel Coelho’s withdrawal from the race have consolidated fields without shifting Arraes’s frontrunner status. Trader pricing aligns with these trends and the first-past-the-post format for the two available seats.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,206
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4, 2026, Senate election at 73.5%, reflecting consistent polling advantages over Humberto Costa (PT) at 19.8% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 7.0%. Recent Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data surveys show Arraes ahead with 18–42% voting intentions, buoyed by PDT positioning within the Popular Front coalition and emphasis on national issues tied to the Lula administration. Costa, seeking a third term, trails amid competition for the second seat from right-leaning challengers, while recent developments such as Miguel Coelho’s withdrawal from the race have consolidated fields without shifting Arraes’s frontrunner status. Trader pricing aligns with these trends and the first-past-the-post format for the two available seats.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,206
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marília Arraes" at 74%, followed by "Humberto Costa" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Marília Arraes" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Humberto Costa" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.