Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race for first place in trader consensus at 68.5%, ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) at 27%, with other registered candidates including João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at negligible shares. Recent July and August 2026 polling consistently shows Costa ahead in vote intention, bolstered by his profile as former governor and federal minister, alongside PT coalition coordination for the October 4 election to fill two seats. Wagner’s reelection bid benefits from incumbency and party backing but trails in current surveys, while fragmented opposition limits challengers. The market reflects these polling trends and the state’s PT electoral base as primary drivers, with limited late-August shifts reported after candidate registrations closed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 69%
Jaques Wagner 27.0%
João Roma <1%
Professora Delliana <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
69%
Jaques Wagner
27%
João Roma
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Angelo Coronel
<1%
Rui Costa 69%
Jaques Wagner 27.0%
João Roma <1%
Professora Delliana <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$2,874 Vol.
69%
Jaques Wagner
$1,153 Vol.
27%
João Roma
$569 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$438 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$530 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$496 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$539 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$564 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$607 Vol.
<1%
Angelo Coronel
$452 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race for first place in trader consensus at 68.5%, ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) at 27%, with other registered candidates including João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at negligible shares. Recent July and August 2026 polling consistently shows Costa ahead in vote intention, bolstered by his profile as former governor and federal minister, alongside PT coalition coordination for the October 4 election to fill two seats. Wagner’s reelection bid benefits from incumbency and party backing but trails in current surveys, while fragmented opposition limits challengers. The market reflects these polling trends and the state’s PT electoral base as primary drivers, with limited late-August shifts reported after candidate registrations closed.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$8,223End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race for first place in trader consensus at 68.5%, ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) at 27%, with other registered candidates including João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at negligible shares. Recent July and August 2026 polling consistently shows Costa ahead in vote intention, bolstered by his profile as former governor and federal minister, alongside PT coalition coordination for the October 4 election to fill two seats. Wagner’s reelection bid benefits from incumbency and party backing but trails in current surveys, while fragmented opposition limits challengers. The market reflects these polling trends and the state’s PT electoral base as primary drivers, with limited late-August shifts reported after candidate registrations closed.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,223End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race for first place in trader consensus at 68.5%, ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) at 27%, with other registered candidates including João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at negligible shares. Recent July and August 2026 polling consistently shows Costa ahead in vote intention, bolstered by his profile as former governor and federal minister, alongside PT coalition coordination for the October 4 election to fill two seats. Wagner’s reelection bid benefits from incumbency and party backing but trails in current surveys, while fragmented opposition limits challengers. The market reflects these polling trends and the state’s PT electoral base as primary drivers, with limited late-August shifts reported after candidate registrations closed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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