Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), a former governor with established regional support across Mato Grosso do Sul, holds the strongest position in the race for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election, where voters select two senators. Recent August 2026 surveys, including Quaest and others, show him leading with roughly 22% combined intentions and up to 31% on the first choice, ahead of party colleague Capitão Contar and lower-polling names such as Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT). Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with Azambuja's sustained advantage in multiple regional and statewide polls through the candidate registration window, while fragmented support among remaining contenders and high undecided shares underscore the barriers for challengers to overtake him before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReinaldo Azambuja 74%
Capitão Contar 11%
Roberto Oshiro 4.6%
Vander Loubet 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
74%
Capitão Contar
11%
Roberto Oshiro
5%
Vander Loubet
3%
Valderi Garcia
2%
Luiz Lemes
1%
Soraya
1%
Daniel Junior
1%
Beto do Movimento
1%
Valter da Comagran
1%
Reinaldo Azambuja 74%
Capitão Contar 11%
Roberto Oshiro 4.6%
Vander Loubet 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
$4,062 Vol.
74%
Capitão Contar
$1,887 Vol.
11%
Roberto Oshiro
$228 Vol.
5%
Vander Loubet
$157 Vol.
3%
Valderi Garcia
$167 Vol.
2%
Luiz Lemes
$185 Vol.
1%
Soraya
$164 Vol.
1%
Daniel Junior
$152 Vol.
1%
Beto do Movimento
$164 Vol.
1%
Valter da Comagran
$226 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), a former governor with established regional support across Mato Grosso do Sul, holds the strongest position in the race for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election, where voters select two senators. Recent August 2026 surveys, including Quaest and others, show him leading with roughly 22% combined intentions and up to 31% on the first choice, ahead of party colleague Capitão Contar and lower-polling names such as Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT). Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with Azambuja's sustained advantage in multiple regional and statewide polls through the candidate registration window, while fragmented support among remaining contenders and high undecided shares underscore the barriers for challengers to overtake him before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$7,392End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), a former governor with established regional support across Mato Grosso do Sul, holds the strongest position in the race for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election, where voters select two senators. Recent August 2026 surveys, including Quaest and others, show him leading with roughly 22% combined intentions and up to 31% on the first choice, ahead of party colleague Capitão Contar and lower-polling names such as Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT). Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with Azambuja's sustained advantage in multiple regional and statewide polls through the candidate registration window, while fragmented support among remaining contenders and high undecided shares underscore the barriers for challengers to overtake him before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,392End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), a former governor with established regional support across Mato Grosso do Sul, holds the strongest position in the race for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election, where voters select two senators. Recent August 2026 surveys, including Quaest and others, show him leading with roughly 22% combined intentions and up to 31% on the first choice, ahead of party colleague Capitão Contar and lower-polling names such as Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT). Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with Azambuja's sustained advantage in multiple regional and statewide polls through the candidate registration window, while fragmented support among remaining contenders and high undecided shares underscore the barriers for challengers to overtake him before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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