Teresa Surita (MDB) leads the market for first place in Roraima’s October 4, 2026 Senate election at 62.5% implied probability, well ahead of Nicoletti (PL) at 23.2% and lower shares for Helena da Asatur (PSD), Hélio Bolsonaro (PL), and the remaining field. A late-August Quaest survey showed her at 26% for the top Senate slot, ahead of Nicoletti (20%) and Helena (19%), reflecting her established local profile as a five-term former mayor of Boa Vista and prior federal deputy. The race features two seats and elevated undecided voters, with PL running multiple contenders after candidate registrations concluded in mid-August. Trader positioning aligns with these polling patterns and name recognition differentials ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTeresa Surita 63%
Nicoletti 23.2%
Helena da Asatur 9.1%
Helio Bolsonaro 7%
$37,353 Vol.
$37,353 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Teresa Surita
63%
Nicoletti
23%
Helena da Asatur
9%
Helio Bolsonaro
7%
Chico Rodrigues
1%
Márcio Junqueira
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
<1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
<1%
Mario Rocha
<1%
Rogério Miranda
<1%
Hilton Xavier
<1%
Pastor Isamar
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
<1%
Teresa Surita 63%
Nicoletti 23.2%
Helena da Asatur 9.1%
Helio Bolsonaro 7%
$37,353 Vol.
$37,353 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Teresa Surita
$15,223 Vol.
63%
Nicoletti
$8,056 Vol.
23%
Helena da Asatur
$1,583 Vol.
9%
Helio Bolsonaro
$6,111 Vol.
7%
Chico Rodrigues
$1,074 Vol.
1%
Márcio Junqueira
$776 Vol.
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
$457 Vol.
<1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
$687 Vol.
<1%
Mario Rocha
$702 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Miranda
$900 Vol.
<1%
Hilton Xavier
$616 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Isamar
$692 Vol.
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
$476 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Teresa Surita (MDB) leads the market for first place in Roraima’s October 4, 2026 Senate election at 62.5% implied probability, well ahead of Nicoletti (PL) at 23.2% and lower shares for Helena da Asatur (PSD), Hélio Bolsonaro (PL), and the remaining field. A late-August Quaest survey showed her at 26% for the top Senate slot, ahead of Nicoletti (20%) and Helena (19%), reflecting her established local profile as a five-term former mayor of Boa Vista and prior federal deputy. The race features two seats and elevated undecided voters, with PL running multiple contenders after candidate registrations concluded in mid-August. Trader positioning aligns with these polling patterns and name recognition differentials ahead of the vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Volume
$37,353End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Teresa Surita (MDB) leads the market for first place in Roraima’s October 4, 2026 Senate election at 62.5% implied probability, well ahead of Nicoletti (PL) at 23.2% and lower shares for Helena da Asatur (PSD), Hélio Bolsonaro (PL), and the remaining field. A late-August Quaest survey showed her at 26% for the top Senate slot, ahead of Nicoletti (20%) and Helena (19%), reflecting her established local profile as a five-term former mayor of Boa Vista and prior federal deputy. The race features two seats and elevated undecided voters, with PL running multiple contenders after candidate registrations concluded in mid-August. Trader positioning aligns with these polling patterns and name recognition differentials ahead of the vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$37,353End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Teresa Surita (MDB) leads the market for first place in Roraima’s October 4, 2026 Senate election at 62.5% implied probability, well ahead of Nicoletti (PL) at 23.2% and lower shares for Helena da Asatur (PSD), Hélio Bolsonaro (PL), and the remaining field. A late-August Quaest survey showed her at 26% for the top Senate slot, ahead of Nicoletti (20%) and Helena (19%), reflecting her established local profile as a five-term former mayor of Boa Vista and prior federal deputy. The race features two seats and elevated undecided voters, with PL running multiple contenders after candidate registrations concluded in mid-August. Trader positioning aligns with these polling patterns and name recognition differentials ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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