Recent polling from late August shows a fragmented field for Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, with Benedita da Silva (PT) often leading intentions but high undecided and blank/null rates (28–37%) leaving the second position open. Multiple right-leaning candidates, including Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), and Pedro Paulo (PSD), split conservative support, while Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) maintains a narrow edge in several surveys amid technical ties within margins of error. The official campaign period, which began August 16, has yet to produce decisive shifts, and the multi-candidate ballot structure plus voter volatility sustain tight probabilities for second place. Key upcoming factors include further polling releases, party alliances, and turnout patterns before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarcelo Crivella 22.4%
Benedita da Silva 16%
Carlos Jordy 15%
Pedro Paulo 11.8%
$40,136 Vol.
$40,136 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcelo Crivella
22%
Benedita da Silva
16%
Carlos Jordy
15%
Pedro Paulo
12%
Carlos Portinho
8%
Monica Benicio
3%
Ó Clemente
<1%
André Monteiro
<1%
Helio Secco
<1%
Marcos Dias
<1%
Luciano Mattos
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
<1%
Michelly Xavier
<1%
Paula Falcão
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
<1%
Waguinho
<1%
Marcelo Crivella 22.4%
Benedita da Silva 16%
Carlos Jordy 15%
Pedro Paulo 11.8%
$40,136 Vol.
$40,136 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcelo Crivella
$3,633 Vol.
22%
Benedita da Silva
$7,042 Vol.
16%
Carlos Jordy
$6,959 Vol.
15%
Pedro Paulo
$6,653 Vol.
12%
Carlos Portinho
$5,037 Vol.
8%
Monica Benicio
$1,930 Vol.
3%
Ó Clemente
$1,138 Vol.
<1%
André Monteiro
$2,174 Vol.
<1%
Helio Secco
$1,118 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dias
$794 Vol.
<1%
Luciano Mattos
$597 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
$608 Vol.
<1%
Michelly Xavier
$601 Vol.
<1%
Paula Falcão
$520 Vol.
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
$533 Vol.
<1%
Waguinho
$798 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a fragmented field for Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, with Benedita da Silva (PT) often leading intentions but high undecided and blank/null rates (28–37%) leaving the second position open. Multiple right-leaning candidates, including Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), and Pedro Paulo (PSD), split conservative support, while Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) maintains a narrow edge in several surveys amid technical ties within margins of error. The official campaign period, which began August 16, has yet to produce decisive shifts, and the multi-candidate ballot structure plus voter volatility sustain tight probabilities for second place. Key upcoming factors include further polling releases, party alliances, and turnout patterns before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$40,136End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a fragmented field for Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, with Benedita da Silva (PT) often leading intentions but high undecided and blank/null rates (28–37%) leaving the second position open. Multiple right-leaning candidates, including Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), and Pedro Paulo (PSD), split conservative support, while Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) maintains a narrow edge in several surveys amid technical ties within margins of error. The official campaign period, which began August 16, has yet to produce decisive shifts, and the multi-candidate ballot structure plus voter volatility sustain tight probabilities for second place. Key upcoming factors include further polling releases, party alliances, and turnout patterns before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$40,136End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows a fragmented field for Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, with Benedita da Silva (PT) often leading intentions but high undecided and blank/null rates (28–37%) leaving the second position open. Multiple right-leaning candidates, including Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), and Pedro Paulo (PSD), split conservative support, while Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) maintains a narrow edge in several surveys amid technical ties within margins of error. The official campaign period, which began August 16, has yet to produce decisive shifts, and the multi-candidate ballot structure plus voter volatility sustain tight probabilities for second place. Key upcoming factors include further polling releases, party alliances, and turnout patterns before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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