Lula leads trader pricing for first place in Amazonas' October 4 first round at 70%, consistent with his national polling edge as the incumbent Workers' Party candidate seeking a fourth term and stronger historical support in northern states. Flávio Bolsonaro follows at 15.5% as the primary right-wing challenger, with remaining contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and others clustered well below amid vote fragmentation. Recent national surveys from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData show Lula ahead in first-round scenarios around 39-42%, though the overall contest stays competitive ahead of the campaign launch and with regional factors like Amazon policy priorities still able to influence state-level turnout and preferences before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 16%
Ronaldo Caiado 3.3%
Zema 2.7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
16%
Ronaldo Caiado
3%
Zema
3%
Edmilson Costa
3%
Clariana Barao
2%
Escritor Augusto Cury
2%
Renan Santos
2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
2%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Lula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 16%
Ronaldo Caiado 3.3%
Zema 2.7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$659 Vol.
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$284 Vol.
16%
Ronaldo Caiado
$78 Vol.
3%
Zema
$94 Vol.
3%
Edmilson Costa
$151 Vol.
3%
Clariana Barao
$149 Vol.
2%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$113 Vol.
2%
Renan Santos
$151 Vol.
2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$164 Vol.
2%
Pablo Marçal
$223 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$268 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$163 Vol.
1%
Samara
$163 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader pricing for first place in Amazonas' October 4 first round at 70%, consistent with his national polling edge as the incumbent Workers' Party candidate seeking a fourth term and stronger historical support in northern states. Flávio Bolsonaro follows at 15.5% as the primary right-wing challenger, with remaining contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and others clustered well below amid vote fragmentation. Recent national surveys from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData show Lula ahead in first-round scenarios around 39-42%, though the overall contest stays competitive ahead of the campaign launch and with regional factors like Amazon policy priorities still able to influence state-level turnout and preferences before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$2,660End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader pricing for first place in Amazonas' October 4 first round at 70%, consistent with his national polling edge as the incumbent Workers' Party candidate seeking a fourth term and stronger historical support in northern states. Flávio Bolsonaro follows at 15.5% as the primary right-wing challenger, with remaining contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and others clustered well below amid vote fragmentation. Recent national surveys from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData show Lula ahead in first-round scenarios around 39-42%, though the overall contest stays competitive ahead of the campaign launch and with regional factors like Amazon policy priorities still able to influence state-level turnout and preferences before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$2,660End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads trader pricing for first place in Amazonas' October 4 first round at 70%, consistent with his national polling edge as the incumbent Workers' Party candidate seeking a fourth term and stronger historical support in northern states. Flávio Bolsonaro follows at 15.5% as the primary right-wing challenger, with remaining contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and others clustered well below amid vote fragmentation. Recent national surveys from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData show Lula ahead in first-round scenarios around 39-42%, though the overall contest stays competitive ahead of the campaign launch and with regional factors like Amazon policy priorities still able to influence state-level turnout and preferences before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions