Recent polling in the Ceará Senate race shows a tight contest for the two seats, with Capitão Wagner (União), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Luizianne Lins (Rede) consistently leading or near the top in surveys released in July and August 2026. Datafolha placed Gomes at 26% and Wagner at 22%, while AtlasIntel showed a virtual tie among the three. Wagner’s alignment with opposition figures and Gomes’ re-election bid backed by the federal government contribute to the fragmented voter preferences, keeping second-place positioning uncertain. Traders reflect this closeness through balanced probabilities, as small shifts in turnout, endorsements, or late polling could reorder the contenders ahead of the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Wagner 43%
Luizianne 19%
Cid Gomes 18%
Guilherme Theophilo 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
43%
Luizianne
19%
Cid Gomes
20%
Guilherme Theophilo
16%
Alcides Fernandes
16%
Reginaldo
4%
Lino Alves
4%
Catarina Matos
2%
Capitão Wagner 43%
Luizianne 19%
Cid Gomes 18%
Guilherme Theophilo 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
$1,092 Vol.
43%
Luizianne
$152 Vol.
19%
Cid Gomes
$100 Vol.
20%
Guilherme Theophilo
$40 Vol.
16%
Alcides Fernandes
$82 Vol.
16%
Reginaldo
$235 Vol.
4%
Lino Alves
$109 Vol.
4%
Catarina Matos
$709 Vol.
2%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in the Ceará Senate race shows a tight contest for the two seats, with Capitão Wagner (União), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Luizianne Lins (Rede) consistently leading or near the top in surveys released in July and August 2026. Datafolha placed Gomes at 26% and Wagner at 22%, while AtlasIntel showed a virtual tie among the three. Wagner’s alignment with opposition figures and Gomes’ re-election bid backed by the federal government contribute to the fragmented voter preferences, keeping second-place positioning uncertain. Traders reflect this closeness through balanced probabilities, as small shifts in turnout, endorsements, or late polling could reorder the contenders ahead of the October election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,520End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in the Ceará Senate race shows a tight contest for the two seats, with Capitão Wagner (União), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Luizianne Lins (Rede) consistently leading or near the top in surveys released in July and August 2026. Datafolha placed Gomes at 26% and Wagner at 22%, while AtlasIntel showed a virtual tie among the three. Wagner’s alignment with opposition figures and Gomes’ re-election bid backed by the federal government contribute to the fragmented voter preferences, keeping second-place positioning uncertain. Traders reflect this closeness through balanced probabilities, as small shifts in turnout, endorsements, or late polling could reorder the contenders ahead of the October election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$2,520End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in the Ceará Senate race shows a tight contest for the two seats, with Capitão Wagner (União), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Luizianne Lins (Rede) consistently leading or near the top in surveys released in July and August 2026. Datafolha placed Gomes at 26% and Wagner at 22%, while AtlasIntel showed a virtual tie among the three. Wagner’s alignment with opposition figures and Gomes’ re-election bid backed by the federal government contribute to the fragmented voter preferences, keeping second-place positioning uncertain. Traders reflect this closeness through balanced probabilities, as small shifts in turnout, endorsements, or late polling could reorder the contenders ahead of the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions