Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, keeping Munich’s minimum temperature on August 31 in the 14–17 °C range. Atlantic air advection and expected showers limit further nocturnal temperature drops, while clear spells could allow brief dips toward 13–14 °C. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 15–16 °C and the near-parity between the broad 21 °C+ and 11 °C– buckets, reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and exact timing of any frontal passage. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the lowest reading used for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Munich on August 31?
11°C or below 69%
21°C or higher 67%
15°C 30%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
69%
12°C
19%
13°C
16%
14°C
27%
15°C
30%
16°C
26%
17°C
17%
18°C
24%
19°C
2%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
67%
11°C or below 69%
21°C or higher 67%
15°C 30%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
16%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
17%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$130 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, keeping Munich’s minimum temperature on August 31 in the 14–17 °C range. Atlantic air advection and expected showers limit further nocturnal temperature drops, while clear spells could allow brief dips toward 13–14 °C. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 15–16 °C and the near-parity between the broad 21 °C+ and 11 °C– buckets, reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and exact timing of any frontal passage. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the lowest reading used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, keeping Munich’s minimum temperature on August 31 in the 14–17 °C range. Atlantic air advection and expected showers limit further nocturnal temperature drops, while clear spells could allow brief dips toward 13–14 °C. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 15–16 °C and the near-parity between the broad 21 °C+ and 11 °C– buckets, reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and exact timing of any frontal passage. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the lowest reading used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, keeping Munich’s minimum temperature on August 31 in the 14–17 °C range. Atlantic air advection and expected showers limit further nocturnal temperature drops, while clear spells could allow brief dips toward 13–14 °C. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 15–16 °C and the near-parity between the broad 21 °C+ and 11 °C– buckets, reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and exact timing of any frontal passage. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the lowest reading used for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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