A warm, dry air mass has driven above-average highs across São Paulo in late August 2026, with several models projecting 31–34 °C for August 31 before a cold front and associated moisture arrive on September 1. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and recent Brazilian meteorological updates cluster around 31 °C, while other numerical models diverge toward 36–37 °C or remain near the 29 °C threshold; this spread, combined with typical winter baseline maxima near 22 °C and rapidly evolving steering winds, underpins the market’s 49 % implied probability on 29 °C or below alongside roughly even odds on the 30–33 °C range. Updated model runs and official briefings in the final 48 hours will likely narrow the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
29°C or below 49%
30°C 16%
31°C 16%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
34%
30°C
14%
31°C
16%
32°C
14%
33°C
12%
34°C
8%
35°C
4%
36°C
3%
37°C
5%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
29°C or below 49%
30°C 16%
31°C 16%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$49 Vol.
34%
30°C
$69 Vol.
14%
31°C
$69 Vol.
16%
32°C
$42 Vol.
14%
33°C
$0 Vol.
12%
34°C
$31 Vol.
8%
35°C
$0 Vol.
4%
36°C
$7 Vol.
3%
37°C
$10 Vol.
5%
38°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A warm, dry air mass has driven above-average highs across São Paulo in late August 2026, with several models projecting 31–34 °C for August 31 before a cold front and associated moisture arrive on September 1. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and recent Brazilian meteorological updates cluster around 31 °C, while other numerical models diverge toward 36–37 °C or remain near the 29 °C threshold; this spread, combined with typical winter baseline maxima near 22 °C and rapidly evolving steering winds, underpins the market’s 49 % implied probability on 29 °C or below alongside roughly even odds on the 30–33 °C range. Updated model runs and official briefings in the final 48 hours will likely narrow the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$297End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A warm, dry air mass has driven above-average highs across São Paulo in late August 2026, with several models projecting 31–34 °C for August 31 before a cold front and associated moisture arrive on September 1. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and recent Brazilian meteorological updates cluster around 31 °C, while other numerical models diverge toward 36–37 °C or remain near the 29 °C threshold; this spread, combined with typical winter baseline maxima near 22 °C and rapidly evolving steering winds, underpins the market’s 49 % implied probability on 29 °C or below alongside roughly even odds on the 30–33 °C range. Updated model runs and official briefings in the final 48 hours will likely narrow the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$297End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...A warm, dry air mass has driven above-average highs across São Paulo in late August 2026, with several models projecting 31–34 °C for August 31 before a cold front and associated moisture arrive on September 1. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and recent Brazilian meteorological updates cluster around 31 °C, while other numerical models diverge toward 36–37 °C or remain near the 29 °C threshold; this spread, combined with typical winter baseline maxima near 22 °C and rapidly evolving steering winds, underpins the market’s 49 % implied probability on 29 °C or below alongside roughly even odds on the 30–33 °C range. Updated model runs and official briefings in the final 48 hours will likely narrow the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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