Northwesterly winds and predominantly clear skies are the dominant drivers positioning 17°C as the market leader for Wellington’s highest temperature on August 30, with 18°C a close secondary outcome. Official MetService guidance indicates a 16°C maximum under strong northwesterlies, which often produce localized warming through downslope effects, while recent August observations show multiple days reaching 16–17°C amid above-normal seasonal temperatures. Ensemble model consensus and trader assessment of wind strength plus solar heating under fine conditions have elevated implied probabilities for the upper end of the forecast range, with only limited downside risk from any late timing shifts in the flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
17°C 64%
18°C 22%
16°C 13%
15°C 4%
NEW
$31,731 Vol.
NEW
$31,731 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
4%
16°C
13%
17°C
64%
18°C
22%
19°C
2%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 64%
18°C 22%
16°C 13%
15°C 4%
NEW
$31,731 Vol.
NEW
$31,731 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
11°C or below
$687 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$687 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$548 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,875 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,834 Vol.
4%
16°C
$9,422 Vol.
13%
17°C
$6,922 Vol.
64%
18°C
$4,571 Vol.
22%
19°C
$1,888 Vol.
2%
20°C
$1,510 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$786 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northwesterly winds and predominantly clear skies are the dominant drivers positioning 17°C as the market leader for Wellington’s highest temperature on August 30, with 18°C a close secondary outcome. Official MetService guidance indicates a 16°C maximum under strong northwesterlies, which often produce localized warming through downslope effects, while recent August observations show multiple days reaching 16–17°C amid above-normal seasonal temperatures. Ensemble model consensus and trader assessment of wind strength plus solar heating under fine conditions have elevated implied probabilities for the upper end of the forecast range, with only limited downside risk from any late timing shifts in the flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$31,731End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northwesterly winds and predominantly clear skies are the dominant drivers positioning 17°C as the market leader for Wellington’s highest temperature on August 30, with 18°C a close secondary outcome. Official MetService guidance indicates a 16°C maximum under strong northwesterlies, which often produce localized warming through downslope effects, while recent August observations show multiple days reaching 16–17°C amid above-normal seasonal temperatures. Ensemble model consensus and trader assessment of wind strength plus solar heating under fine conditions have elevated implied probabilities for the upper end of the forecast range, with only limited downside risk from any late timing shifts in the flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31,731End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northwesterly winds and predominantly clear skies are the dominant drivers positioning 17°C as the market leader for Wellington’s highest temperature on August 30, with 18°C a close secondary outcome. Official MetService guidance indicates a 16°C maximum under strong northwesterlies, which often produce localized warming through downslope effects, while recent August observations show multiple days reaching 16–17°C amid above-normal seasonal temperatures. Ensemble model consensus and trader assessment of wind strength plus solar heating under fine conditions have elevated implied probabilities for the upper end of the forecast range, with only limited downside risk from any late timing shifts in the flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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