**Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Munich on August 31 around 24–25°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering on those outcomes.** Westerly flow and moderate instability are expected to produce partly cloudy skies with showers or thunderstorms possible during the day, which limits solar heating and caps the peak. Afternoon temperatures are projected to reach the mid-20s Celsius before any precipitation arrives, consistent with slightly above-normal late-August conditions (historical average high ~22°C). **Key scientific factors differentiating the close 24°C and 25°C probabilities include the precise timing and coverage of showers, boundary-layer moisture, and wind speeds.** Stronger or earlier rain would suppress the daily maximum toward 24°C or lower by reducing insolation, while delayed or lighter precipitation would allow brief clearing and a push toward 25°C. Ensemble spreads in short-range models reflect this uncertainty, with no strong signal for extremes above 26°C or below 23°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated runs closer to the date will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 31?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 31?
25°C 44%
24°C 34%
26°C 11%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
34%
25°C
44%
26°C
11%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
4%
25°C 44%
24°C 34%
26°C 11%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
18°C or below
$281 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$181 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
3%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$0 Vol.
10%
24°C
$2 Vol.
34%
25°C
$130 Vol.
44%
26°C
$113 Vol.
11%
27°C
$149 Vol.
4%
28°C or higher
$142 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Munich on August 31 around 24–25°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering on those outcomes.** Westerly flow and moderate instability are expected to produce partly cloudy skies with showers or thunderstorms possible during the day, which limits solar heating and caps the peak. Afternoon temperatures are projected to reach the mid-20s Celsius before any precipitation arrives, consistent with slightly above-normal late-August conditions (historical average high ~22°C).
**Key scientific factors differentiating the close 24°C and 25°C probabilities include the precise timing and coverage of showers, boundary-layer moisture, and wind speeds.** Stronger or earlier rain would suppress the daily maximum toward 24°C or lower by reducing insolation, while delayed or lighter precipitation would allow brief clearing and a push toward 25°C. Ensemble spreads in short-range models reflect this uncertainty, with no strong signal for extremes above 26°C or below 23°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated runs closer to the date will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$999End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Munich on August 31 around 24–25°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering on those outcomes.** Westerly flow and moderate instability are expected to produce partly cloudy skies with showers or thunderstorms possible during the day, which limits solar heating and caps the peak. Afternoon temperatures are projected to reach the mid-20s Celsius before any precipitation arrives, consistent with slightly above-normal late-August conditions (historical average high ~22°C).
**Key scientific factors differentiating the close 24°C and 25°C probabilities include the precise timing and coverage of showers, boundary-layer moisture, and wind speeds.** Stronger or earlier rain would suppress the daily maximum toward 24°C or lower by reducing insolation, while delayed or lighter precipitation would allow brief clearing and a push toward 25°C. Ensemble spreads in short-range models reflect this uncertainty, with no strong signal for extremes above 26°C or below 23°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated runs closer to the date will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$999End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Munich on August 31 around 24–25°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering on those outcomes.** Westerly flow and moderate instability are expected to produce partly cloudy skies with showers or thunderstorms possible during the day, which limits solar heating and caps the peak. Afternoon temperatures are projected to reach the mid-20s Celsius before any precipitation arrives, consistent with slightly above-normal late-August conditions (historical average high ~22°C). **Key scientific factors differentiating the close 24°C and 25°C probabilities include the precise timing and coverage of showers, boundary-layer moisture, and wind speeds.** Stronger or earlier rain would suppress the daily maximum toward 24°C or lower by reducing insolation, while delayed or lighter precipitation would allow brief clearing and a push toward 25°C. Ensemble spreads in short-range models reflect this uncertainty, with no strong signal for extremes above 26°C or below 23°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated runs closer to the date will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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