Forecast models from sources including Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a highest temperature of 24–26°C on August 31, driven by persistent moisture from Pacific low-pressure systems fueling afternoon convection and widespread cloud cover that limits solar heating. Mexico City's high elevation (approximately 2,240 m) keeps baseline highs near the seasonal 23–24°C average, while elevated humidity and expected thunderstorms further moderate peaks by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation. Model spread arises from variable timing of storm initiation and steering winds, creating the balanced market-implied probabilities across 20–26°C thresholds as traders weigh official guidance against ensemble uncertainty ahead of updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 31?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 31?
26°C or higher 47%
24°C 44%
25°C 40%
23°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
4%
17°C
4%
18°C
4%
19°C
9%
20°C
4%
21°C
15%
22°C
10%
23°C
27%
24°C
44%
25°C
40%
26°C or higher
47%
26°C or higher 47%
24°C 44%
25°C 40%
23°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
9%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
15%
22°C
$1 Vol.
10%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
44%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a highest temperature of 24–26°C on August 31, driven by persistent moisture from Pacific low-pressure systems fueling afternoon convection and widespread cloud cover that limits solar heating. Mexico City's high elevation (approximately 2,240 m) keeps baseline highs near the seasonal 23–24°C average, while elevated humidity and expected thunderstorms further moderate peaks by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation. Model spread arises from variable timing of storm initiation and steering winds, creating the balanced market-implied probabilities across 20–26°C thresholds as traders weigh official guidance against ensemble uncertainty ahead of updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$1End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a highest temperature of 24–26°C on August 31, driven by persistent moisture from Pacific low-pressure systems fueling afternoon convection and widespread cloud cover that limits solar heating. Mexico City's high elevation (approximately 2,240 m) keeps baseline highs near the seasonal 23–24°C average, while elevated humidity and expected thunderstorms further moderate peaks by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation. Model spread arises from variable timing of storm initiation and steering winds, creating the balanced market-implied probabilities across 20–26°C thresholds as traders weigh official guidance against ensemble uncertainty ahead of updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a highest temperature of 24–26°C on August 31, driven by persistent moisture from Pacific low-pressure systems fueling afternoon convection and widespread cloud cover that limits solar heating. Mexico City's high elevation (approximately 2,240 m) keeps baseline highs near the seasonal 23–24°C average, while elevated humidity and expected thunderstorms further moderate peaks by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation. Model spread arises from variable timing of storm initiation and steering winds, creating the balanced market-implied probabilities across 20–26°C thresholds as traders weigh official guidance against ensemble uncertainty ahead of updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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