Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services project overnight lows of 12–14°C in Mexico City on August 31, aligning closely with the long-term August average of roughly 12–13°C at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms associated with the ongoing rainy season moderate radiative cooling, limiting sharp drops while keeping conditions near seasonal norms. Model consensus shows little divergence on steering patterns or intensification of any systems that would push temperatures notably lower. Market-implied odds place the greatest weight on outcomes near or below 13°C, reflecting trader assessment of these typical late-summer conditions and the limited time remaining before resolution, with uncertainty tied to possible revisions in the final forecast runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 31?
7°C or below 96%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
10°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
7°C or below
96%
8°C
50%
9°C
50%
10°C
50%
11°C
50%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
25%
16°C
50%
17°C or higher
47%
7°C or below 96%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
10°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
96%
8°C
$0 Vol.
50%
9°C
$0 Vol.
50%
10°C
$0 Vol.
50%
11°C
$0 Vol.
50%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services project overnight lows of 12–14°C in Mexico City on August 31, aligning closely with the long-term August average of roughly 12–13°C at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms associated with the ongoing rainy season moderate radiative cooling, limiting sharp drops while keeping conditions near seasonal norms. Model consensus shows little divergence on steering patterns or intensification of any systems that would push temperatures notably lower. Market-implied odds place the greatest weight on outcomes near or below 13°C, reflecting trader assessment of these typical late-summer conditions and the limited time remaining before resolution, with uncertainty tied to possible revisions in the final forecast runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services project overnight lows of 12–14°C in Mexico City on August 31, aligning closely with the long-term August average of roughly 12–13°C at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms associated with the ongoing rainy season moderate radiative cooling, limiting sharp drops while keeping conditions near seasonal norms. Model consensus shows little divergence on steering patterns or intensification of any systems that would push temperatures notably lower. Market-implied odds place the greatest weight on outcomes near or below 13°C, reflecting trader assessment of these typical late-summer conditions and the limited time remaining before resolution, with uncertainty tied to possible revisions in the final forecast runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services project overnight lows of 12–14°C in Mexico City on August 31, aligning closely with the long-term August average of roughly 12–13°C at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms associated with the ongoing rainy season moderate radiative cooling, limiting sharp drops while keeping conditions near seasonal norms. Model consensus shows little divergence on steering patterns or intensification of any systems that would push temperatures notably lower. Market-implied odds place the greatest weight on outcomes near or below 13°C, reflecting trader assessment of these typical late-summer conditions and the limited time remaining before resolution, with uncertainty tied to possible revisions in the final forecast runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions