Recent National Weather Service and private model forecasts for Houston on August 31 project highs in the mid-90s under continued high pressure, southerly flow, and typical late-summer humidity, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. This consensus aligns with recent observed highs of 96–98°F and supports the leading market-implied odds on 94–95°F. Slight afternoon thunderstorm chances may limit peak readings slightly below recent days but are unlikely to bring substantial cooling. Updated NWS guidance and morning model runs ahead of the date remain the key variables that could shift trader positioning if they revise the expected maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 31?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 31?
94-95°F 45%
92-93°F 28%
90-91°F 18%
96-97°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
83°F or below
<1%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
28%
94-95°F
45%
96-97°F
18%
98-99°F
18%
100-101°F
7%
102°F or higher
7%
94-95°F 45%
92-93°F 28%
90-91°F 18%
96-97°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
83°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
7%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
7%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
18%
92-93°F
$360 Vol.
28%
94-95°F
$9 Vol.
45%
96-97°F
$9 Vol.
18%
98-99°F
$33 Vol.
18%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
7%
102°F or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model forecasts for Houston on August 31 project highs in the mid-90s under continued high pressure, southerly flow, and typical late-summer humidity, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. This consensus aligns with recent observed highs of 96–98°F and supports the leading market-implied odds on 94–95°F. Slight afternoon thunderstorm chances may limit peak readings slightly below recent days but are unlikely to bring substantial cooling. Updated NWS guidance and morning model runs ahead of the date remain the key variables that could shift trader positioning if they revise the expected maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$411End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model forecasts for Houston on August 31 project highs in the mid-90s under continued high pressure, southerly flow, and typical late-summer humidity, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. This consensus aligns with recent observed highs of 96–98°F and supports the leading market-implied odds on 94–95°F. Slight afternoon thunderstorm chances may limit peak readings slightly below recent days but are unlikely to bring substantial cooling. Updated NWS guidance and morning model runs ahead of the date remain the key variables that could shift trader positioning if they revise the expected maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$411End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model forecasts for Houston on August 31 project highs in the mid-90s under continued high pressure, southerly flow, and typical late-summer humidity, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. This consensus aligns with recent observed highs of 96–98°F and supports the leading market-implied odds on 94–95°F. Slight afternoon thunderstorm chances may limit peak readings slightly below recent days but are unlikely to bring substantial cooling. Updated NWS guidance and morning model runs ahead of the date remain the key variables that could shift trader positioning if they revise the expected maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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