Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered precipitation over Guangzhou driven by regional monsoon influences, moderating the overnight radiative cooling and pointing to a minimum temperature near the 25–26°C climatological average for late August. This setup aligns with observed conditions in the prior 48 hours, where lows have hovered in the mid-20s Celsius amid easterly to northerly flows of 2–6 mph. Trader sentiment remains closely split between warmer and cooler outcomes because small shifts in timing of any clearing or heavier rain bands could alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C, while the market assigns low probability to extremes outside historical ranges. Updated model guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings ahead of August 31 will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 31?
31°C or higher 61%
21°C or below 57%
23°C 49%
27°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
21°C or below
57%
22°C
47%
23°C
49%
24°C
45%
25°C
31%
26°C
29%
27°C
49%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
61%
31°C or higher 61%
21°C or below 57%
23°C 49%
27°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
21°C or below
$130 Vol.
57%
22°C
$0 Vol.
47%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C
$0 Vol.
45%
25°C
$0 Vol.
31%
26°C
$0 Vol.
29%
27°C
$0 Vol.
49%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered precipitation over Guangzhou driven by regional monsoon influences, moderating the overnight radiative cooling and pointing to a minimum temperature near the 25–26°C climatological average for late August. This setup aligns with observed conditions in the prior 48 hours, where lows have hovered in the mid-20s Celsius amid easterly to northerly flows of 2–6 mph. Trader sentiment remains closely split between warmer and cooler outcomes because small shifts in timing of any clearing or heavier rain bands could alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C, while the market assigns low probability to extremes outside historical ranges. Updated model guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings ahead of August 31 will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered precipitation over Guangzhou driven by regional monsoon influences, moderating the overnight radiative cooling and pointing to a minimum temperature near the 25–26°C climatological average for late August. This setup aligns with observed conditions in the prior 48 hours, where lows have hovered in the mid-20s Celsius amid easterly to northerly flows of 2–6 mph. Trader sentiment remains closely split between warmer and cooler outcomes because small shifts in timing of any clearing or heavier rain bands could alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C, while the market assigns low probability to extremes outside historical ranges. Updated model guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings ahead of August 31 will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered precipitation over Guangzhou driven by regional monsoon influences, moderating the overnight radiative cooling and pointing to a minimum temperature near the 25–26°C climatological average for late August. This setup aligns with observed conditions in the prior 48 hours, where lows have hovered in the mid-20s Celsius amid easterly to northerly flows of 2–6 mph. Trader sentiment remains closely split between warmer and cooler outcomes because small shifts in timing of any clearing or heavier rain bands could alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C, while the market assigns low probability to extremes outside historical ranges. Updated model guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings ahead of August 31 will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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