**Recent forecasts from multiple models show persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and northerly flow moderating peak temperatures in Guangzhou on August 31 to around 30–32 °C, below late-August climatological highs near 33–34 °C.** Heavy rain and high humidity are limiting daytime solar heating, with afternoon maxima most often projected near 30–31 °C across sources such as Yr, WeatherBug, and GFS-based guidance. This unsettled pattern, tied to ongoing monsoon moisture, has kept recent daily highs suppressed and creates the main downward pressure on probabilities for 34 °C or above. Trader consensus clusters around 32–33 °C because short-range uncertainty in rain timing and any temporary clearing could still allow brief spikes toward those levels, while sub-30 °C outcomes remain unlikely absent stronger cold-air advection. New model runs and official CMA updates over the next 24–48 hours will further refine the exact maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 31?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 31?
33°C 29%
31°C 27%
32°C 23%
34°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
7%
31°C
19%
32°C
23%
33°C
29%
34°C
18%
35°C
10%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 29%
31°C 27%
32°C 23%
34°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
26°C or below
$346 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$190 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$110 Vol.
1%
29°C
$17 Vol.
2%
30°C
$15 Vol.
7%
31°C
$30 Vol.
19%
32°C
$0 Vol.
23%
33°C
$0 Vol.
29%
34°C
$76 Vol.
18%
35°C
$21 Vol.
10%
36°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models show persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and northerly flow moderating peak temperatures in Guangzhou on August 31 to around 30–32 °C, below late-August climatological highs near 33–34 °C.** Heavy rain and high humidity are limiting daytime solar heating, with afternoon maxima most often projected near 30–31 °C across sources such as Yr, WeatherBug, and GFS-based guidance. This unsettled pattern, tied to ongoing monsoon moisture, has kept recent daily highs suppressed and creates the main downward pressure on probabilities for 34 °C or above. Trader consensus clusters around 32–33 °C because short-range uncertainty in rain timing and any temporary clearing could still allow brief spikes toward those levels, while sub-30 °C outcomes remain unlikely absent stronger cold-air advection. New model runs and official CMA updates over the next 24–48 hours will further refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$817End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models show persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and northerly flow moderating peak temperatures in Guangzhou on August 31 to around 30–32 °C, below late-August climatological highs near 33–34 °C.** Heavy rain and high humidity are limiting daytime solar heating, with afternoon maxima most often projected near 30–31 °C across sources such as Yr, WeatherBug, and GFS-based guidance. This unsettled pattern, tied to ongoing monsoon moisture, has kept recent daily highs suppressed and creates the main downward pressure on probabilities for 34 °C or above. Trader consensus clusters around 32–33 °C because short-range uncertainty in rain timing and any temporary clearing could still allow brief spikes toward those levels, while sub-30 °C outcomes remain unlikely absent stronger cold-air advection. New model runs and official CMA updates over the next 24–48 hours will further refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$817End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple models show persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and northerly flow moderating peak temperatures in Guangzhou on August 31 to around 30–32 °C, below late-August climatological highs near 33–34 °C.** Heavy rain and high humidity are limiting daytime solar heating, with afternoon maxima most often projected near 30–31 °C across sources such as Yr, WeatherBug, and GFS-based guidance. This unsettled pattern, tied to ongoing monsoon moisture, has kept recent daily highs suppressed and creates the main downward pressure on probabilities for 34 °C or above. Trader consensus clusters around 32–33 °C because short-range uncertainty in rain timing and any temporary clearing could still allow brief spikes toward those levels, while sub-30 °C outcomes remain unlikely absent stronger cold-air advection. New model runs and official CMA updates over the next 24–48 hours will further refine the exact maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions