Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for first place in Alagoas during the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's position within the Northeast region where his Workers' Party has drawn consistent backing from lower-income and Catholic voters. Incumbency, paired with the recent formal nomination alongside Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and the start of official campaigning in mid-August, has reinforced this positioning amid national polls showing Lula ahead of challengers such as Flavio Bolsonaro. Historical voting patterns in Alagoas and neighboring states further anchor expectations, even as Bolsonaro's selection of a local Alagoas lawmaker for his ticket attempts to broaden appeal among evangelical and southern-leaning demographics. Late shifts from economic conditions, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 94.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.0%
Zema <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
4%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 94.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.0%
Zema <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,720 Vol.
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$506 Vol.
4%
Zema
$396 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$439 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$435 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$439 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$450 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$450 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$439 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$450 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$450 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$338 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$348 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for first place in Alagoas during the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's position within the Northeast region where his Workers' Party has drawn consistent backing from lower-income and Catholic voters. Incumbency, paired with the recent formal nomination alongside Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and the start of official campaigning in mid-August, has reinforced this positioning amid national polls showing Lula ahead of challengers such as Flavio Bolsonaro. Historical voting patterns in Alagoas and neighboring states further anchor expectations, even as Bolsonaro's selection of a local Alagoas lawmaker for his ticket attempts to broaden appeal among evangelical and southern-leaning demographics. Late shifts from economic conditions, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Volume
$9,862End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for first place in Alagoas during the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's position within the Northeast region where his Workers' Party has drawn consistent backing from lower-income and Catholic voters. Incumbency, paired with the recent formal nomination alongside Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and the start of official campaigning in mid-August, has reinforced this positioning amid national polls showing Lula ahead of challengers such as Flavio Bolsonaro. Historical voting patterns in Alagoas and neighboring states further anchor expectations, even as Bolsonaro's selection of a local Alagoas lawmaker for his ticket attempts to broaden appeal among evangelical and southern-leaning demographics. Late shifts from economic conditions, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,862End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for first place in Alagoas during the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's position within the Northeast region where his Workers' Party has drawn consistent backing from lower-income and Catholic voters. Incumbency, paired with the recent formal nomination alongside Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and the start of official campaigning in mid-August, has reinforced this positioning amid national polls showing Lula ahead of challengers such as Flavio Bolsonaro. Historical voting patterns in Alagoas and neighboring states further anchor expectations, even as Bolsonaro's selection of a local Alagoas lawmaker for his ticket attempts to broaden appeal among evangelical and southern-leaning demographics. Late shifts from economic conditions, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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