Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models converge on a Tokyo minimum temperature of 23–25°C for August 31, with 24°C as the modal outcome amid partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and elevated humidity limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and recent rainfall patterns have suppressed daytime heating while retaining warmth overnight, producing conditions slightly above late-August climatological averages near 23°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around these values because model spreads remain narrow only 48 hours out, with minor differences in boundary-layer moisture or urban heat retention able to shift the recorded low by 1°C; upcoming updated model runs and official JMA briefings will likely refine this range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
24°C 45%
25°C 39%
23°C 17%
26°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
5%
22°C
5%
23°C
17%
24°C
45%
25°C
39%
26°C
13%
27°C
8%
28°C
6%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 45%
25°C 39%
23°C 17%
26°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
5%
22°C
$20 Vol.
5%
23°C
$61 Vol.
17%
24°C
$125 Vol.
45%
25°C
$160 Vol.
39%
26°C
$0 Vol.
13%
27°C
$0 Vol.
8%
28°C
$0 Vol.
6%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models converge on a Tokyo minimum temperature of 23–25°C for August 31, with 24°C as the modal outcome amid partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and elevated humidity limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and recent rainfall patterns have suppressed daytime heating while retaining warmth overnight, producing conditions slightly above late-August climatological averages near 23°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around these values because model spreads remain narrow only 48 hours out, with minor differences in boundary-layer moisture or urban heat retention able to shift the recorded low by 1°C; upcoming updated model runs and official JMA briefings will likely refine this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$407End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models converge on a Tokyo minimum temperature of 23–25°C for August 31, with 24°C as the modal outcome amid partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and elevated humidity limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and recent rainfall patterns have suppressed daytime heating while retaining warmth overnight, producing conditions slightly above late-August climatological averages near 23°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around these values because model spreads remain narrow only 48 hours out, with minor differences in boundary-layer moisture or urban heat retention able to shift the recorded low by 1°C; upcoming updated model runs and official JMA briefings will likely refine this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$407End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models converge on a Tokyo minimum temperature of 23–25°C for August 31, with 24°C as the modal outcome amid partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and elevated humidity limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and recent rainfall patterns have suppressed daytime heating while retaining warmth overnight, producing conditions slightly above late-August climatological averages near 23°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around these values because model spreads remain narrow only 48 hours out, with minor differences in boundary-layer moisture or urban heat retention able to shift the recorded low by 1°C; upcoming updated model runs and official JMA briefings will likely refine this range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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