Latest official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate the highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31 will likely fall between 29–31°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and high humidity that limit daytime solar heating amid recent showers. These conditions follow a cooler, rainier pattern in late August that has suppressed maxima below seasonal averages near 30–32°C. Minor model differences center on the extent of afternoon clearing or scattered drizzle, which could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread across 29–31°C outcomes as reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final JMA updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
30°C 28%
29°C 28%
31°C 24%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
16%
29°C
28%
30°C
28%
31°C
24%
32°C
6%
33°C
3%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 28%
29°C 28%
31°C 24%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
$67 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$142 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$133 Vol.
4%
28°C
$525 Vol.
16%
29°C
$864 Vol.
28%
30°C
$293 Vol.
28%
31°C
$1,029 Vol.
24%
32°C
$71 Vol.
6%
33°C
$57 Vol.
3%
34°C
$40 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$107 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate the highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31 will likely fall between 29–31°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and high humidity that limit daytime solar heating amid recent showers. These conditions follow a cooler, rainier pattern in late August that has suppressed maxima below seasonal averages near 30–32°C. Minor model differences center on the extent of afternoon clearing or scattered drizzle, which could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread across 29–31°C outcomes as reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final JMA updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,329End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate the highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31 will likely fall between 29–31°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and high humidity that limit daytime solar heating amid recent showers. These conditions follow a cooler, rainier pattern in late August that has suppressed maxima below seasonal averages near 30–32°C. Minor model differences center on the extent of afternoon clearing or scattered drizzle, which could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread across 29–31°C outcomes as reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final JMA updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,329End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate the highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31 will likely fall between 29–31°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and high humidity that limit daytime solar heating amid recent showers. These conditions follow a cooler, rainier pattern in late August that has suppressed maxima below seasonal averages near 30–32°C. Minor model differences center on the extent of afternoon clearing or scattered drizzle, which could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread across 29–31°C outcomes as reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final JMA updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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